Basketball on Paper (or on your PC)

I was researching a small essay that I was going to write regarding the efficiency of Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker and found an interesting article which concisely summarises the recent work in basketball statistics that we (coaches) are attempting to incorporate into the game.

Just as the technical analyst would argue that a stock’s price reflects all possible information, the statistician would claim that a player’s contribution to the team’s winning percentage can be entirely distilled into numbers. I disagree -- stats can be tremendously helpful when used intelligently but must eventually take a backseat to the coach’s discretion. Technical analysis doesn’t always foretell events such as innovations or federal indictments (although these stocks are usually overbought when they turn south) and using statistics to identify truly effective players is much more difficult than it seems.

I’ve always found that statistics can never properly analyse how players contribute to a team’s personality. If Team X needs to play at a high level of intensity and Player Y drives intensity but jacks up questionable shots frequently, what should a coach do? Should a coach play the intense player and write off the errors as part of the game or should the burn go to a player with a higher efficiency rating?

Billy Beane possesses an excellent payroll-to-wins ratio since 1999 but has been unable to win any post-season series. The Los Angeles Angels, Florida Marlins, and Chicago White Sox have all won the World Series playing small ball and getting “hot” at the right time (although the statistician would claim the hot hand doesn’t exist and the Chicago’s performance could be attributed to other factors, such as Phil Garner). I think that the coach should play Player Y, keeping them on a short leash and focusing on the core team statistics that contribute to winning.

A Bad Game for the Raptors

The Raptors delivered another atrocious performance tonight, a 113-106 loss to the Pistons that is respectable because Sam Mitchell left the starters in for the entire game. There was no need for Chris Bosh to play forty-four minutes tonight, although he set a career high in points and keeps adding elements to his game.

From what I saw, Detroit torched Toronto with their signature play, the Circle Play. First of all, this play and all of its counters should be in any Association scouting report about the Detroit. Didn’t anyone read it? Bump Rip Hamilton off those cuts and force Detroit to use the second (Wallace) and third (Billups) options (ideally the fourth option if possible). Secondly, what’s Toronto’s signature play? Do the Raptors have one (besides play Chris Bosh all game and hope something good happens)?

Detroit doesn’t do anything complicated on offence. They run some guys off screens, but mostly they play basketball together, mixing up ball screens, penetration, and kicking to open shooters. In the late 1990s, the Chicago/Los Angeles (Triple Post a.k.a. Triangle) and New Jersey/Sacramento (Princeton) offences proliferated the Association. In the next few years, the Detroit and Phoenix/San Antonio (international pick and roll) offences will gain followers.

A Bad Week for the Raptors

The Raptors demonstrated some horrible execution this week. On Tuesday, they lost to Washington in overtime. To give credit where it is due, they ran a very cute side out for Charlie Villanueva to create a baseline jumper before the halftime buzzer. Usually, I find that Sam Mitchell’s quick hitters are dry and predictable, especially compared to what Kevin O’Neill would diagram. Occasionally, Mitchell comes up with a well-conceived, effective play.

In overtime, I appreciated how the Wizards ran Gilbert Arenas off repeated dribble picks. Given that Arenas had dropped over thirty points, I don’t know why the Raptors did not hedge the screen more aggressively in order to contest the shot.

At the other end, Chris Bosh was setting a high rub for the ballhandler. I didn’t think the guard did a good enough job of taking his check into Bosh’s screen. The high screen and roll is really an opportunity to nail someone and the Raptors missed that chance. Consequently, Jose Calderon, Mike James, and Morris Peterson were unable to turn the corner successfully and Bosh did not get good possessions on the block after rolling to the basket.

Is there any doubt that Peterson should only shoot baseline three point shots? It baffles me that he shoots from other spots around the arc and it aggravates me when Jalen Rose jacks a three from the line of 45º on the ball reversal or kick out when he could swing the ball to MoPete in the corner.

I missed Wednesday’s game against the Lakers entirely but I gather there wasn’t much to see. When I turned on the TV, I saw Von Wafer stroll into a key during a Los Angeles free throw while four Raptors did nothing as they watched him gather the rebound and score. Then I turned the TV off. In high school basketball, play the rebound of the second free throw after the shot hits the rim. In the CIS, NCAA, or NBA, play the rebound after the shooter releases the shot.

I am still waiting for Rob Babcock’s call telling me that he understands my frustration and will be personally refunding my remaining season tickets.