Skiing and Sport in Canada

Saturday’s World Cup downhill gold medal win by Erik Guay in Garmisch-Partenkirchen is a tremendously promising Canadian sporting achievement. Guay’s triumph is full of potential but should not be mistaken as a sign that Canadian sport is positioned to repeat these results consistently.

By stringing together three podium finishes in 2007, Guay has proven that he possess the physical and mental abilities to contend at the international level. Coaches who have mentored him, sponsors who have supported him, and skiing clubs and sport organizations such as Alpine Canada who have allowed him to compete all share credit for the victory. Guay’s recent success demonstrates that Canadians can challenge the Europeans who have traditionally dominated the sport. The next step is winning on the biggest stages: the Olympics and the world championships.

What can Erik Guay do to perform at the best of his abilities over the course of several years? He can continue to condition his mind and body by training (indoors and on the slopes), eating properly, and making use of the sport science resources in Canada.

What can Alpine Canada do to assist Guay? They can furnish the national ski team with the best equipment, provide athletes with financial means so they can devote their full attention to training, and invest in the latest sport science resources and high performance coaching.

Furthermore, Alpine Canada and develop the next generation of Crazy Canucks. Doing this requires the backing of the federal government and the belief of the Canadian people in the value of sport and exercise. This is Canada’s biggest alpine triumph since Kerrin Lee-Gardner’s Olympic gold medal in Albertville and it is a definite starting point.

To climb the international ladder, athletes must seek the competitive fire within themselves. But once they find that drive, sport organizations should help them along the way. This is not the case in Canada, on the slopes or elsewhere.

One anecdote that illustrates the lack of support that athletes receive is the career of Myriam Bédard. She won a biathalon bronze medal in 1992 but she did not want to forfeit her endorsements to Biathalon Canada so the organization suspended Bédard from the national team. Training independently, Bédard won two gold medals in the 1994 Lillehammer Olympics. Instead of scorning a top athlete, Biathalon Canada should have fully supported Bédard so she could have modelled the way for others.

In order to improve performance and inspire the average citizen to take up sport, the Canadian government needs to make significant commitments over several years. Multiple sports need provincial and national leagues. Coaching development must be brought up to standard. Sport science lags behind the rest of the world. Currently, token gestures are made and when athletic performance falls short at a major competition, the public is concerned for a month before returning to their three and a half year habit of ignoring sport.

Without changing the culture, Canadian sport will remain barren - highlighted by occasional oases like Erik Guay or Steve Nash - but otherwise barren.

All-Star Game Notes

Although nothing could top Charles Barkley outracing Dick Bavetta, I thought that there were other interesting moments during the Association All-Star weekend worth noting:

Dwight Howard took advantage of opportunities during Sunday's game and Saturday's dunk contest to make a name for himself. Howard's athleticism and power are possibly beyond peer in the Association. Nevertheless, the weekend's results highlight that there is still room for improvement for the top pick in the 2004 draft.

If Howard acquires post moves - on the block and elbow - and a greater range for his jumper than he will truly become unstoppable. Even a thorough understanding of the basics, such as a reliable drop-step or the ability to rip through and drive anywhere on the court, would be a great improvement.

Chris Bosh performed as expected, playing under control and deferring to other scorers. A few rebounds and a good, but unremarkable, shooting percentage illustrated how Bosh earned his spot in the United States National Team. Bosh contributes solid play for a complementary post player and has no pretensions regarding his role. Hopefully, he is able to earn additional all-star game appearances in the future.

Despite the artificial nature of the game, the fundamentals still apply. The West won because they had more rebounds, fewer turnovers, and most importantly, a much higher shooting efficiency. The West dropped 52 dimes compared to 29 by the East, although this was more a sign of less turnovers and higher percentage shots rather than a symbol on their own. Even when the goal is entirely entertainment, playing smartly led to a huge victory for the West.

In addition to scorers, the All-Star Game included many excellent rebounders. Howard, Bosh, Amare Stoudamire, Kevin Garnett, and Shaquille O'Neal all demonstrated a variety moves to secure both offensive and defensive boards. Rebounding is largely effort but there are other little tricks that permit a player to use their hands and feet to their advantage.

Overtime Reflection

When faced with a choice between a book about Crime and Punishment and another about screening and rolling, perhaps only the mentally ill would choose the book about ball. Coaches and players can get stuck in the details like they are the lightning sand. Although he could write an essay on the subject, Bill Bradley only needed a sense of where he was to succeed on the court.

Recently I was coaching during crunch time of a game and I made things too difficult for the team. Basketball should be simple. In the final minute of overtime, I wanted to use a timeout and fouls to go two-for-one. In retrospect, I should have called timeout and diagrammed a three point play and told the players to play defence.

I was counting on too many variables to work out in my team's favour. Had I relied on less, it would have been easier for the team to succeed.

Although I have an entire bookcase full of basketball coaching books, it still doesn't read a screen and roll any better than the Chris Bosh and T.J. Ford bobbleheads on the coffee table.

The Wages of Wins

Reading The Wages of Wins by David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook raised interesting questions regarding assessment and evaluation. Factions contributing to victories and the rational behind coaching decisions were studied among other issues. Statistics are more prolific than ever before but whether the numbers are correctly applied remains to be determined.

Scoring and wins

Fortunately, the authors scrutinized the Association extensively, finding that scoring is highly correlated to winning. Therefore coaches should play the five players who contribute to the highest scoring rate (who also limit the opponent's scoring rate).

A player can affect points per possession by scoring more points and maintaining possession of the ball. Shooting efficiency, rebounding, steals, and turnovers are key variables. To keep the issue simple, I will deal with offensive factors and assume that the same issues are relevant on defence, but in reverse. A good defensive team should force the opponent to take tough shots, rebound the ball, and steal the ball when possible.

Apparently, rebounding (maintain possession with an offensive rebound and ending an opponent's possession with a defensive rip) is better correlated to winning that actually putting the ball in the basked. Likewise, when calculate individual Win-Shares, preventing turnovers or causing opponents to turn the ball over permits a player to compensate for below average scoring ability.

Decisions

When awarding minutes and contracts, the authors found that coaches and general managers tend to view basketball as five 1-on-1 games instead of one 5-on-5 game and attribute too much weight to scoring. I thought that Berri, Schmidt, and Brook ignored the elements of leadership and chemistry. When variables become intangible, analysis becomes incredibly complicated.

Lingering questions that are not addressed by The Wages of Wins:

1. What about the player who inspires teammates to work harder?
2. Points lead to Win-Shares but who gets the Win-Share when a ball screen leads to a basket?
3. Are there elements that permit a team to become greater than the sum of its parts?

I've studied this issue somewhat and found that it is possible to isolate successful combinations of players. The impact of leadership and player chemistry on a game that is played 5-on-5 in its finest form but can be isolated but film review, software like Dartfish, and comprehensive statistics are imperative.

Assists

Surprisingly, the assist statistic is largely negligible and not correlated to winning. I think it is still a positive occurrence because an assist or a pass that leads to an assist is unlikely to result in a turnover and will probably move the ball into a location from where a higher percentage shot can be taken.

Scoring "runs"

The authors dismiss the idea of momentum but a team that shortens oppoentn possessions by rebounding well, maintains control of the ball, and takes a good shots is likely to curtain runs by the opponent while simultaneous being predisposed to making runs of their own.

Irrespective of offensive skill the numbers and empirical evidence reveal that a team cannot give an opponent too many easy first (bad shots and turnovers that feed the fast break) and second (offensive rebounds) chances. "One and done", "the ball is 24K gold", "we're fighting an uphill battle", and other coaching aphorisms are entirely apropos when a team is losing control of the ball and the game.

The increased role of numbers and details guys

" Guys are sharing the ball and it looks good."
- Mike D'Antoni

On the Phoenix Suns coaching staff, Mike D'Antoni often makes decisions by "feel" whereas Marc Iavaroni provides more tangible analysis and facts. Like the heroes of The Princess Bride combined the cunning of Westley, the strength of Fezzik, and the speed of Inigo Montoya, a multitude of perspectives are present on successful teams.

Performance under Pressure, Part I

During Superbowl XLI, Rex Grossman performed poorly, throwing two interceptions and barely moving Chicago's offence. According to the media, Grossman was one of the worst Superbowl quarterbacks ever - and possibly one of the worst to play that position in the history of the league.

How bad was he?

Breaking down the reasons for Grossman's inauspicious performance generates a generic list: physical skill, knowledge of the game, composure under pressure, etc.. Like other major sporting events, performance under pressure on demand trumps all. During his career at Florida, Grossman demonstrated excellent physical tools at an elite collegiate program. He must still possess those qualities; otherwise Brian Griese would have been taking snaps for the Bears.

Early in the regular season, Grossman's agent attests to his tremendous confidence. Watching his body language in the Superbowl, it was obvious something had changed. Grossman had a QB Rating over 100 in September but only 73.2 in the postseason. Throughout the game, he made a number of decisions that were less than astute.

Why?

Ultimately, Rex Grossman is responsible for his performance. Obviously, he was an average or below average quarterback who strung together a series of poor games at the end of the season.

What can coaches do to prevent players from breaking down?

The media is so pervasive at the professional level it is uncertain whether any efforts could have constructed a positive environment for Rex Grossman but this is step one.

My friend Sherwyn Benn remarked that the strength of Carleton's four consecutive National Championships is that the teams play the same at the beginning of the game as they do in the conclusion. Experience in close games is critical because it enables players to realize that it is only sport and the worst case scenario is never that bad. Decisions and actions become habits and routines.

Use accurate measures of evaluations. Eventually, Grossman matched the public perception of his abilities. Statistics such as win-shares, value over replacement, and other numbers give players an accurate picture of their skills that they can live up to on the playing field.