29 June 2007

Decisions and Experiments

In the final minutes of a 24-22 loss at home to the B.C. Lions, the Toronto Argonauts ran an inside draw run on a crucial second down. Gaining merely negligible yards and the team faced a desperate third-and-ten situation that the Argos could not convert.

Creativity plays a role in sport but should be limited to the proper time and place. The best time to experiment is often earlier rather than later as the breaks of the game provide several second chances. Toronto gambled was a gamble against daunting odds and lost. Perhaps if video analysis had shown a hole in the Lions’ defence, an imaginative play call might have succeeded but that did not appear to be the case.

Coach Mike Clemons’ decision to start Damon Allen at quarterback is another example of how nothing is ever final. Michael Bishop entered at the beginning of the fourth quarter and almost led the team to a comeback victory. A decision is a sunk cost, not a sinking ship. Clemons managed the game too passively, erring by waiting too long to change a choice made in the past. Regardless of the situation, there is always an opportunity to stop, reflect, and make things better.

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13 June 2007

Rising to the Occasion

Criticisms abound regarding Bob Delaney’s pass on the contact between LeBron James and Bruce Bowen during Cleveland’s last three-pointer Wednesday. Whilst Bowen’s physical defence straddles a fine line between fair and foul and his persistence on the perimeter is certainly a challenge that his opponent must overcome, the play in question was not particularly relevant to the outcome of Game 3.
  • The Cavaliers’ poor execution throughout the encounter, including the three and a half minute scoreless stretch between 5:28 and 1:54 of the fourth quarter, is mostly responsible for their loss. The Spurs provided countless chances but the home team was neither calm nor composed enough to take advantage.
  • James could have redeemed his teammates down the stretch but missed a number of shots (“It’s a make or miss league,” said Jeff Van Gundy). The game’s penultimate shot was unlikely to succeed irrespective of any contact. Beyond the arc, James shot 31.1% during the year, including 31.8% at home and 27.9% in the playoffs. Cleveland had converted 3/18 three point shots to that point, buzzer beaters tend to fail three quarters of the time, and - thanks to the end-out Mike Brown diagramed which called for an outside shot off the dribble - James had a lot of momentum going to his left. All things considered, James had less than a fifteen percent chance to make that shot before the intentional attempt to foul.

The previous play, when James passed out of a double-team to Anderson Varejao, who missed a lay-up, was the Cavaliers’ last chance to win the game. James could have attacked the trap, drawn a foul, or received a return pass from Varejao and taken a mid-range step-back jumpshot. Teams must seize opportunities when they occur, a task that Cleveland was not ready to achieve.

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