Malcolm Gladwell and Full-Court Pressure

A friend asked me to comment on this article, which was published by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker.

First of all, Vivek Ranadivé is incredibly self-centered and should reevaluate why he wants to coach twelve-year-old girls. This statement does not absolve his counterparts of their boorish, loutish, and short-tempered behaviour but he is coaching at the wrong level. Usually, that particular age group restricts full-court pressure because of the destructive effects on skill development. If he had limited practice time, Randivé should have focused on fundamental skills.
Obviously full-court pressure would work; most teenagers make horrendous decisions under any type of pressure. It’s entirely different when rick Pitino does likewise at the University of Louisville because of the difference in skill level and age.

T.E. Lawrence did what any intelligent person facing long odds would do: he changed the paradigm under which he was operating. It’s what the Viet Cong did to the U.S. Army, what David did to Goliath, and what Digger Phelps and Fordham did to Doctor J. and the University of Massachusetts. One of Gladwell’s arbitrary set of examples that is appropriate is Tibco software because that company understood that they needed real-time information and accurate analysis to surpass larger competitors.

If a “skilled” youth team executes at an acceptable level, full-court pressure will bedevil their players. If a team executes at an elite level, they will pick full-court pressure apart. There is a reason that the favourite in war wins 71.5%. The underdogs don’t win because they are better at war but because they change the particular type of war that is being fought (which is exactly what anyone who is short-stacked should do).

Gladwell acknowledges this fact in effect on page two of the article but continues with another seven pages of dilatory, pedantic, and superficial logic. He is right about one statement: need fuels innovation and dire need accelerates the creative process.

The article discusses two possible outcomes for a mismatch: the underdog changes the game and prevails or favourite crushes them. It’s incredibly rare that the underdog does not alter the conditions of the battle and prevails (prevailing only due to luck, perhaps). Princeton didn’t try to beat Georgetown in the paint in 1989, they tried to cut and pass around them.

If a Major League pitcher has a great fastball but poor control, the batter should make him throw strikes or wait for his pitch. If the pitcher has a great fastball and precise control, their talent will overcome the batter (except for the element of chance, such as when Kirk Gibson took Dennis Eckersley long).

Pressure has its place, at the right time, in the right situation, and against the right opponent. Against the tremendous talent of the superior talent of teams such as the Chicago Bulls and the Boston Celtics, Rick Pitino won only one playoff series during his Association coaching career. Michael Jordan (1989) and Larry Bird (1988) picked his team - the New York Knicks - apart.

O'Neal and Moon for Marion and Banks

The Toronto Raptors acquired Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks from the Miami Heat in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon. Bryan Colangelo has made his team much more like the Phoenix Suns, obtaining an upgrade in speed and scoring at the expense of defense and rebounding.

On Wednesday, the Raptors beat the San Antonio Spurs with above-average half-court execution and satisfactory defence. Led by Roko Ukic, Toronto was much less predictable; although they mostly alternated Flex-Ball Screen-High Rub, it seemed that the ball ended up in different hands and that there was more penetration. I’m not a fan of Chris Bosh holding the ball as the shot clock winds down before shot-faking thrice and shooting a fifteen foot jumper so I that that this was a positive development. Another difference between O’Neal and Bosh is that screens were set more solidly and post defence against Tim Duncan appeared tougher.

Now, the team will certainly run more and play more athletically. Marion’s numbers have continued to decline this year although he is an above-average rebounder from the wing. Down the stretch, the team will likely put the ball in Bosh’s hands and I’m not sure how that will work out. The Raptors don’t need to put the ball in Parker’s hands as much so he can focus more on creating his own offence. As a corollary of that, I suppose Jason Kapono will get less run unless his shooting heats up.

Post defence has improved - which is good because it was previously horrendous - but post defence is very shallow and soft. The Raptors have some options to prevent players like Manu Ginobli from dropping 37 points on them. Instead of size, the defence has more speed. Hopefully Bosh and Bargnani never foul anyone and never injure themselves.

The Raptors have some cap flexibility to get a free agent this summer and convince Chris Bosh to stay. Banks’s contract is as bad as his point guard play but it’s only five million a year, which is manageable. Moon was gone for sure anyways and needed to be moved to clear minutes for Marion. In a perfect world, it would be good if Kapono started shooting well; maybe he could be moved for a back-up post.

Potential Rotation: there are a lot of guys to whom Jay Triano can turn to for contributions. Not that there are a lot of great players but there are a lot of players with similar PERs on the bench. They are very much a European-style team. These guys should help Triano run more of his sets.
PG: Calderon/Ukic
SG: Parker/Kapono/Banks
SF: Marion/Graham/Kapono
PF: Bosh/Humphries
C/F: Bargnani/Voskuhl

The Raptors better start scoring about 85 point in the first three quarters because they will be holding on for dear life down the stretch. And fans need no longer fret whilst nervously awaiting the imminent explosion of Jermaine O’Neal’s knee.

Talent Myopia

In 1960, Theodore Levitt published Marketing Myopia, a seminal article for the Harvard Business Review that highlighted how a narrow understanding and a refusal to accept change doomed a number of business empires. Companies ranging from electric street car manufacturers that didn't understand the effect of the automotive industry to dry cleaners who did not cope with the development of new synthetic fabrics were criticized. The same problems also manifest themselves away from the business world, on the basketball court, where players get caught up with their own abilities and misunderstand their role in the sport.

Self-Deceiving Cycle: There is a certain groupthink among today’s ballers, ideas and opinions taken as given, facts ignored, despite all common sense. They follow the hoop culture vicariously via NBA.com but don’t follow the example of their role models. They watch an And1 mix tape and assume that they have the all the skills they need. E.O. Wilson once said that “Blind faith, no matter how passionately expressed, will not suffice. Science for its part will test relentlessly every assumption about the human condition.”

The Cycle develops as players forget how their heroes made the Association, ignoring examples like Steve Nash shooting free throws in the rain on Vancouver Island and disregarding the countless others who wanted to be him but failed in a blaze of glory. From where they are now, focusing only on their narrow range of skills and not the entire game, it might serve them well to read the signposts.

Production Pressure: It can’t be denied that young players are pressured by countless others. There’s pressure to keep the baskets coming at the Bantam level, rather than shoot correctly (irrespective of the outcome). There’s pressure to win by any means necessary rather than do it the right way (you don’t get paid for winning club games). There’s pressure to talk about Brandon Roy’s three-point buzzer beater against Houston, rather than the player who allowed him to get open (Travis Outlaw set the screen). There’s pressure achieve the coach’s definition of success, rather than John Wooden’s (As Coach Wooden would say, you can’t shoot if you can’t move and get open). Coaches should pressure players to improve, not just perform.

Population Myth: Some excellent student-athletes have always been recruited because they standout at their level. There are countless youth teams but very few professional leagues, and very few professional leagues that pay well. It’s hard to make a living playing ball. Agents serve dozens of clients and most of them are not Scott Boras.

Sooner or later, the number of buyers will shrink and the number of sellers will remain the same. Coaches will not only assess players on their physical abilities but their mental and social abilities as well. Some players will reach a certain point based on talent alone but others will be held back. Some players will less talent will surpass them because they play the game well.

Student-athletes must accept that they are basketball players, not ball handlers or scorers and learn the about the entire game: accept advice, rebound, set screens, give help, take leadership, move the ball, pass and cut, etc… Even Trajan Langdon is getting paid to play basketball these days.

I Wrote this While Waiting in the Airport

Like 1999, the Toronto Raptors have made a draft-day deal, exchanging their draft pick for a big from the Indiana Pacers. Like 1999, a (relatively) new General Manager is hoping that this is the move that helps the Raptors exchange their “Participant” ribbons from the past two years for real playoff glory. Trading the seventeenth pick, Rasho Nesterovic, T.J. Ford, and likely Maceo Baston for Jermaine O’Neal should do the trick.

Rasho is fundamentally sound, defends reasonably well, cares for the team, and is a nice guy … but there are also reasons why he’s always the second or third best big in his draft year, his free agent year, or most of the deals he has been involved with. He lacks athleticism and dominant post moves. No qualms with Rasho’s toughness but he doesn’t demand a double-team and won’t take over games in the fourth quarter.

T.J. Ford needed to go, sooner rather than later. Despite all of his positives, Ford’s injury risks balance with O’Neal’s concerns. Ford was also destroying the team’s chemistry and making this trade now allows Colangelo to firmly commit to Jose Calderon. With any luck, Colangelo will also commit to someone who can teach Calderon how to handle a double-team during the screen and roll and penetrate and kick against a large centre; foiling Tom Thibodeau and Dwight Howard should be two of his main goals this year.

Jermaine O’Neal is a great fit for the Raptors although the $44M contract over two years is not so good. Chris Bosh likes to work from the wing or the high post and O’Neal should complement him inside. He will be an excellent option on the block down the stretch of games and will be double-teamed, opening room for Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino. And O’Neal will post an enormous “Stay Out” sign near Toronto’s basket.

The Raptors must decide whether to start Kapono, Delfino, Jamario Moon, or Andrea Bargnani at the 3. I think that Kapono will be the best fit, as his shooting will benefit tremendously from the Raptors’ inside presence. But Sam Mitchell will have options down the stretch. Bargnani should come off the bench as the sixth man, also as the first forward back-up, until he proves he deserves otherwise and Delfino should back-up the guards.

Colangelo needs a P.J. Brown/Udonis Haslem/Nazr Mohammed-type to fill a forward spot in the rotation (unless Primo Brezec or Kris Humphries show that they have improved) and should use the mid-level exception to fill this role. Or he could split the mid-level and also sign the back-up point guard required, since Darrick Martin won’t do this year. Jamario could get some burn, but it’s imperative that he attack the rack much more. Under this scenario (two players remaining to be signed), Joey Graham is expendable but he might be the twelfth player on the roster.

Of course, O’Neal’s knee could still be problematic, Bosh’s plantar fasciitis might flare up, and Calderon could be horrendously injured at the Beijing Olympics. Irrespective of all of those possibilities, I think the deal will work. Toronto will not surpass Boston as the Atlantic Division Champion but they have a good shot at the fourth seed in the playoffs and they should take care of the Orlando Magic if they meet again in the post-season.

(Kidney issues aside, if I were Bryan Colangelo, I would have spent picks 25 or 26 trying to trade-up and get Darrell Arthur because I think he’s a nice fit for the bench or picks 28 to 33 trying to get Mario Chalmers for that back-up point spot.)

Ifs and Buts

If he were alive, Red would be proud: a Boston Celtics squad that sacrificed individual glory for team success and when faced with adversity knew no other recourse that to turn up the defensive intensity won the Association title. And they smoked the Los Angeles Lakers to do so.

Certainly the team had talent - a modern triad to match Russell, Cousy, and Havlicek - but they came closer to the Auerbach intangibles than any other recent champion. These Celtics didn’t necessarily run the court but Pierce and Garnett dominated the screen and roll at both ends of the court. Boston didn’t control the paint by force but their teamwork shrank the court and controlled the glass, five peers working together. Their offence didn’t score consistently in the hundreds but they made key outside shots and constantly moved the ball.

If he weren’t such an avid Zen follower, Phil would be frustrated: towards the Lakers team that he coaches for their lack of toughness and also towards himself because he didn’t make adjustments down the stretch. Jackson shouldn’t be upset in a destructive way but motivated to make positive, proactive changes.

It’s not a time for the L.A. organization to overreact and panic but players must improve their performance under pressure. The return of Andrew Bynum will increase defense and rebounding but the team must add a veteran defensive small forward and depth inside. Pau Gasol can still play the Pinch Post to attack Tom Thibodeau’s defence but the Triangle Offence needs to evolve, adding new sets like Slice Passes, Backdoors, and Screen and Roll Counters and emphasizing principles like more motion away from the ball and better team ball movement.

If both teams repeat their successes, they should meet again in the Finals next year. But, like 1985, the outcome should be the opposite of the previous season.

The Right "Stuff"

Kobe Bryant said that if he’d been told in training camp that Los Angeles would have to win three straight games to claim the Association title, he’d take it for sure. On the other hand, Phil Jackson felt that the Lakers hadn’t grasped the significance of their situation between Thursday and Sunday. In a sense, both were right.

Boston was laying their bodies on the line, playing through pain. Doc Rivers told them to play every minute of Game 5 like it was their last. The Celtics had bought into a season-long philosophy of team play and personal sacrifice for a long-term goal. You can only rely on short-term goals like “not in our house” for so long. Eventually, a team has to play hard, play smart, and play together consistently.

Finally the Lakers got the line more frequently but there is work to be done defending the screen and roll and Paul Pierce’s subsequent penetration.

Kobe has the right perspective. It’s not the end of the world if the team loses because they will be in good shape next year. After losing to the Detroit Pistons in five games in 2004, the Lakers experienced an annus horribilis followed by two mediocre seasons before acquiring the players to get to this point. Kobe’s dissatisfaction did not prevent him from winning the most valuable player award and he has always been able to overcome tribulations on and off the court.

Kobe understands that it’s only basketball and he has a record of performing under pressure. The Lakers need to get him the ball more often in isolation situation.

Likewise, Rocco Mediate understands that it’s only golf. From his performance on the back nine of the U.S. Open and following interviews, Mediate seems to have a good sense of perspective. He is honoured to play with Tiger Woods, not intimidated by him. Mediate also understands that he can’t control how his opponents play and said that it’s pointless to root against someone in golf. He added that he had tried to win with his putts on the eighteenth green, having assumed that Tiger would make his putts.

Balancing that calm attitude is Tiger’s intensity and determination. A new Nike campaign features Earl Woods speaking about how his son will be the most focused golfer in the world. It’s important to keep things in perspective but it’s also important to have a little bit of attitude.

Before Game 7 of the 1969 Finals between the favoured Lakers and the aging Celtics, L.A. owner Jack Kent Cooke ordered some Lakers championship balloons to hang from the ceiling of the L.A. Forum. Bill Russell - who wanted to win his last game as a player more than anything - walked over to Jerry West and told him that “those f----- balloons are staying up.” West averaged 38 points per game and won the Finals M.V.P. Award but Boston beat L.A. one more time, claiming their eleventh title at the time.

Rocco Mediate has a fair chance and I don’t think he’ll shoot himself in the foot today but generally speaking, it’s important never to bet against Tiger Woods.

Experience Matters?

Like the 1983 Edmonton Oilers lost the Stanley Cup to the New York Islanders and the 1998 Brazil team lost the World Cup to France, it appears that the 2008 Los Angeles Lakes will lose the Association title to the more experienced Boston Celtics. The gifted Oilers and Brazilians won the subsequent championships in fairly dominating fashion; it remains to be seen whether the 2009 Lakers will do likewise.

Thursday’s Game 4 was disastrous for L.A.: the first half the manifestation of every possible lucky bounce followed by the second half which showcased Boston’s outstanding focus. Often, older teams rely on intelligence and intensity more than their athleticism. For example, the San Antonio Spurs will make countless adjustments until they regain the upper hand whilst the Celtics turn up the heat defensively.

Athletic teams, such as the Lakers cope better with opponents that adjust because they possess a natural advantage anyways. When young players meet a squad that is outworking them, they have trouble processing that superior performance. They should be better but they aren’t and the reasons for the discrepancy are highly intangible: fighting through injuries, battling for every rebound and loose ball, not stopping until the ball is through the hoop.

Assistant Coach Tom Thibodeau’s defensive is essentially a match-up Man-to-Man, with plenty of help and rotation. The team may trap screen and rolls or shrink the court with a sagging defence but they don’t make a lot of changes. When behind, they pick up the energy and play harder. Even Head Coach Doc Rivers out-coached his counterpart by picking up a T at the right time and reminding the veterans who play for the team that he coaches to pick up their intensity.

Is Phil Jackson the same person who previously won titles in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles? The fact he has (probably) twice coached a more talented team to defeat against a more passionate defensive team in the Finals raises the question.

The current Lakers squad can still win. I think that it’s a matter of getting their star post Andrew Bynum back, adding a couple more veteran threats to the bench and teaching Pau Gasol and Vladimir Radmanovic how to defend and rebound with their heads and hearts. I thought that they had enough talent to get the job done but apparently I was mistaken.

Kobe, Derrick Fisher, and Jackson had been there before and should have better helped their teammates prepare but they seemingly haven’t. This first hand experience should teach L.A. how to defend, stop the ball, rotate and recover, get to the rim, and rebound as hard as they can throughout the championship series. Like Wayne Gretzky and his young teammates losing to the hardened Islanders dynasty, the Lakers will have the edge when these two teams meet again in the 2009 Association Finals.

Sport in Canadian Society

The anthology, Sport in Canadian Society, contains theses about gender, violence, class, and other issues in sport. Although published in 1991, the chapter regarding media remains very salient. The authors believe that broadcasting sporting events can lead to a slippery slope wherein ratings influence telecasts in many ways. For example, a legitimate sport like skiing could be replaced by a dilatory exhibition like arm wrestling on A.B.C.’s Wide World of Sports or commentators might go beyond describing the action and actually create their own storylines. Competing for viewers, the networks distort the competition more and more, in order to create a product that appeals to more viewers.

Watching yesterday’s Raptors-Heat game, I couldn’t help but feel that the game was irrelevant. Spurious activities abounded: the mascot held up placards during play, Rasho Nesterovic was digitally inserted into Saturday Night Fever, and many fans missed the first few possessions of each quarter because they were getting food. Association basketball is tepid and rarely engaging for a full forty-eight minutes. So I watch the weak-side, the trail official, or the post play.

It’s difficult to focus on the weak-side because the Air Canada Centre is excessively loud. It’s much more serene to watch at home but given the attendance figures, Serenity Now is not what the fans want. Instead of educating spectators about the game, teams in the Association have changed the experience to create a noisy, abrasive, and overwhelming experience. For many people, the competition is secondary to whether they can take home a mediocre slice of pizza (too often after a mediocre game.)

Best Seat in the House

Spike Lee’s “basketball memoir”, Best Seat in the House, provides a unique perspective on the sport and frank commentary. Despite his film background, Lee is tremendously knowledgeable about basketball and how it is intertwined with New York City’s culture.

He has attended hundreds of games, from Game 7 of the 1970 Finals when Willis Reed emerged from the locker room to deflate and defeat the Lakers to Game 7 of the 1994 Eastern Finals when the Knicks returned to the Finals for the first time in twenty years, and he describes the city’s euphoric reaction to these moments. Thousands of citizens, young and old, play ball - few succeeded in the Association while most few short - and they (wrongly) indentify themselves with the sport.

Lee comments on the role that psychology played in Michael Jordan’s career. Jordan always had an edge over his opponents, gained by repeatedly owning them on the court while befriending them off of it, and he would not hesitate to take advantage. To him, winning was paramount. Jeff Van Gundy called Jordan a “con-man” (and the Knicks were subsequently lit up [repeatedly]) but Lee admired this tactic, despite what Chicago did to the Knicks over the years.

Lee also discusses how General Managers do not pay enough attention to a free agent’s environment while tripping over each other in order to sign the latest superstar. Salaries are spiralling out of control but nobody asks “why is that guy so good?” or “who made that team so great?” in enough detail. Consequently, players like Larry Brown (1996 Dallas Cowboys) and Troy Glaus (2002 Anaheim Angels) sign huge deals and never duplicate their performance because the players who protected them are no longer around.

Legends were interviewed and said that modern players possess a sense of entitlement. George Gervin claimed that they wouldn’t take anyone’s advice, from college and professional coaches to former players, and few reached their potential. Others, like Bill Bradley, commented that overall skill and team play have disappeared as players become more one-dimensional. Michael Jordan never stopped listening to Dean Smith and Phil Jackson and continued to improve. The Association may have become bigger and better over the past twenty years but the level of play has not followed suit.

The More Things Change...

San Antonio beat Dallas 97-94 last week. Same as usual (except for 2006). Tim Duncan scored the crucial points while Dirk Nowitzki fell short at crunch time. Each team demonstrated how the keys to success lie in the details.

During the penultimate play, Bruce Bowen blocked Jason Terry’s shot. Duncan immediately took the ball out of bounds because he is the Spurs’ worst free throw shooter. He inbounded as soon as possible and since the Mavericks were ill-prepared, more time elapsed and San Antonio had the best chance for points from the line.

Bowen deliberately missed the second shot with 0.4 seconds remaining and Duncan tipped the ball towards midcourt. This action started the clock and increased the time it would take to recover the ball so the concept could have been just as effective had more time been on the clock.

Not all was well-executed by the defending champions. Michael Finley overran a hot closeout, permitting Josh Howard to drive by him and dunk before help arrived. Duncan changed his pivot foot in the paint but a foul was called due to his reputation. Bowen climbed all over Terry but the official passed.

Dallas still shows many of the same flaws. When Tony Parker guard Nowitzki on a switch, Dallas’ star forward did not back down San Antonio’s point guard and post him up. Instead, Nowitzki shot a contested a fade-away jumper with a low chance of success. Dallas still lacks crunch-time shooters and needed to bench newly-acquired Jason Kidd in order to put more scorers on the court.

I don’t blame Avery Johnson for this game but it is clear that he still stands in Pop’s shadow. San Antonio knew exactly what they wanted to do and executed each play fairly well. On the other side, it seems like nobody on the Dallas team wants to take responsibility for making plays in critical situation. Despite ostensibly improving their team, the Mavericks have fallen from first overall to a fifth or sixth place team and can look forward to another long off-season.

Trades

Whether Dallas improves their current playoff hopes by trading Jason Kidd for Devin Harris, they may have sacrificed their long-term outlook. Within a couple of seasons, Harris would have supplanted Jason Terry as the Maverick’s primary point guard. As the formed Wisconsin guard reaches his prime, Kidd will be entering his decline.

Furthermore, Harris should have led a lineup featuring Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, along with a shooter and formidable bigman, who would have been drafted with the ’08 and ’10 draft picks sent to New Jersey or signed with the cap room now consumed by Kidd. As Dallas bemoans a deal made under pressure, New Jersey will be thankful that they dismantled their overpriced backcourt in 2008. The consequence of each choice is that the Nets will likely return to the Finals before the Mavs (who blew their chance with this lineup in ’06). Like the 1999-2005 Sacramento Kings, Dallas could discover how Association glory is fleeting.

The Mavs needed a true point guard, in addition to a knowledgeable coach, a tough post defender, consistent inside scoring, and tenacious wing defence. This recent swap solved merely one of many problems, and only for the time being. The natural development of Harris would have achieved likewise, with patience. The team is third in their division, behind New Orleans and San Antonio. Chris Paul and David West are better than Jason Kidd and a mystery centre; the Spurs recently acquired Kurt Thomas to defend inside, ensuring they possess all the parts mentioned above.

When constructing a team, General Managers must correctly evaluate relative value. Trading for a top point guard to combine with a so-so back-up might be worth less than focusing on the development of Harris and a younger player like Brandon Bass, who could significantly contribute to the team’s chances next year. A superstar with a weak supporting cast may lose to a well-balanced rotation, like previous Maverick teams or the current Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. After all, the San Antonio Spurs beat Jason Kidd’s New Jersey Nets during the 2003 Finals.

A lesson for all sport participants is to avoid the influence of pressure, whether double-teamed on the court or inundated by the media in the office. Thoughtful choices needn’t equate with the delay and indecisiveness some equate with taking too much time. In fact, careful consideration can still be achieved in a timely manner.

P.S.: Creativity (Sam Presti’s ability to create three first round draft picks, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and an eight million dollar trade exception simply by holding Kurt Thomas for half a season during a rebuilding year), timing (Atlanta’s decision to get Mike Bibby for next to nothing during the season when he would contribute the most towards making the playoffs), and resolve (Los Angeles’ stout refusal to give up Andrew Bynum in any trade offers) also help.

Nurturing Nature

Last week, during a Cleveland win over San Antonio, Mike Brown and Gregg Popovich left three timeouts each on the table. Confident in the ability of veteran players to execute quality possessions, the coaches allowed the play to flow back and forth. The Spurs lost 90-88 but Manu Ginobli released a steady, open, and transition jumper from the foul line as time expired.

After a 6-5 shootout win over Pittsburgh, Bruce Boudreau commented that one of the first moves that he became Washington coach was to make the Capitals a four-line team. Rather than over-emphasize match-ups - dumping the puck to initiate line changes, losing puck possession while focusing on the other team - Boudreau felt that all eighteen skaters should know how to play against everyone and understand that the coaches believe in their abilities

Subtle coaching strategies may pay dividends when motivating apprehensive players like Andrea Bargnani, who according to Sam Mitchell is still learning his position and probably according to Leo Rautins needs to learn that he can succeed in the Association. After scouting, drafting, or recruiting nature, the trick is to nurture a Caron Butler, not destroy a Kwame Brown.

According to the Harvard Business Review, the two most important managerial behaviours are enabling people to move forward in their work and treating them decently as human beings. The latter was evidenced by the coincidence of ‘progress events’ with ‘interpersonal events’ whereas the former was driven by multiple factors. Good managers provide direct help and adequate resources and time, react to success and failures with a learning orientation, and set clear team goals.

Maybe Tom Coughlin’s sideline tirade towards New York kicker Lawrence Tynes was not an example of a learning orientation. But it didn’t bother him, unlike Michael Jordan’s legendary tirades towards Kwame Brown in Wizards practices, because of Tynes’ personal constitution and Coughlin’s awareness of this. The Toronto Raptors’ coaches should set clear goals and follow-up while players and peers monitor his mental attitude and provide personal support.

Coach People, Not Players

Joe Gibbs retired for a second time Tuesday, six weeks after an ignorant timeout decision costing a November game in Buffalo brought critics out of the woodwork only to be silenced by Washington’s determined four-game winning streak to make the playoffs. Gibbs will be remembered for controlling the line of scrimmage with brutal line play, amassing yards and points with innovative offensive sets, and making the most of each player’s talents. The most recent stint with the Redskins proved that Gibbs could connect with a new generation of players, despite conventional wisdom purporting that such team building was irrelevant in today’s era of the salary cap and free agency.

When the Reskins needed to come together and raise their game to the next level, to salvage the season, to overcome the death of Sean Taylor, Joe Gibbs convinced the team to play tenacious defence, execute offensively with great precision, and focus every play. Unfortunately, they could not raise their game an additional level in the playoffs but a team without a real starting quarterback succeeded a fair amount.

The Detroit Pistons play tenacious defence. The San Antonio Spurs execute offensively with great precision. Kevin Garnett, Chauncey Billups, and Tim Duncan focus every play. The Toronto Raptors do not. Toronto beat Philadephia handily but excellent teams do more than kick other teams while they are down (they don’t have letdowns either); they play hard, play smart, and play together consistently. It’s best when the fire comes from within but coaches can provide the spark at critical times.

Finally, Sam Mitchell decided to use Anthony Parker more. (The Raptors should also post him in New York tomorrow.) Jose Calderon’s penetration and judicious passing created an efficient offensive system. (I’d like to see the team try a high rub with him and Bosh against the Knicks.) But the rebounding and defence was still lacking. (Eddy Curry will eat Andrea Bargnani if he doesn’t watch himself.) Most of the team still neglected to attack the basket. (I wish Mitchell told the players to drive, draw fouls, and finish - or take a seat.)

Calmness in the face of adversity is a commendable attribute but astute analysis accompanied by appropriate action is even better. Letting the team bend and stretch the offensive and defensive systems works if you are Phil Jackson running the Triangle Offence but it can lead to a lot of bad shots in the wrong situation.

Until points in the paint and shooting percentage improve, I’d like to see the team presented with a number of quality options and be forced to stick to them (Delfino the penetrator should come off the bench, not Delfino the three point shooter). Outside shots should follow kick outs (Kapono could have a bigger role, if he earns it in practice). The team just needs to get after it on the glass (I don’t know why Humphries resolve has not yet rubbed off on some of the other forwards, besides Bosh.)

Consistency, needed to reach the next level in the Association, must be found somewhere and a laissez-faire attitude won’t do it this season.

Patience is a Virtue (Most of the Time)

The Globe and Mail reports that Sam Mitchell has been keeping an even keel lately, amid the Raptors’ uneven performances. Somebody once told me - as I was raising my voice in a team huddle - that you can only feel embarrassed if you choose to feel that way. The observation was astute and memorable but all seasons reach a point when the coach needs to rise above modeling the way and make things better, as soon as possible.

Intensity has its time and place. Players’ inner motivation is far more effective than any external forces exerted by the coach. But when the inner flame is extinguished, it is the coach’s role to get the fire started again.

As regulation ended against the Spurs in Game 7 of their 2006 series, Dirk Nowitzki couldn’t be denied. It was a different story a year later in the first round versus the Warriors: Golden State was out to prove themselves and could not be denied. Perhaps Avery Johnson could have lit a fire under Dallas and rediscovered that lost desire. Likewise, Sam Mitchell could light a fire under Toronto and inspire the team to attack the basket, D-up, or crash the boards harder.

Creativity and ingenuity would immediately benefit the Raptors’ stagnant offence. (It’s stagnant because of the lack of scoring caused by the lack of movement: the ball, players, and players with the ball remain far too stationary.) But the team’s main flaws could be remedied regardless.

Mitchell could cut somebody’s burn; Delfino, Moon, and Kapono could compete in practice for fewer small forward minutes. Mitchell could make Bargnani’s role contigent on rebounding; it’s not fair for the coach to be forced to choose between skilled players and Kris Humphries in order to get minutes. Mitchell could redistribute touches on the offensive end; give Anthony Parker more opportunities to read the defence, like in that set when Bosh screens away for AP and the secondary option is an iso for Bosh.

Maybe it’s necessary for the coach to scream at the used car salesman until he attacks the rack. Everything must go, including that overused fade away jumper. Once, last season, Bosh got the ball in the high post, turned, and crammed it on Zach Randolph. It was spectacular -- a rare explosion of energy and determination resulting in two points and a win.

It’s time for Sam Mitchell to generate a similar explosion. It’s not necessary to wear the lines of the Air Canada Centre practice court to do so but it is imperative to act proactively. It’s nice to radiate an “all is well” aura when all is well. Last season, the ship seemed to right itself on its own, leading to a franchise-best record. But consistent winning requires consistent change and improvement. Right now, the Raptors need an infusion of energy to push them past this obstacle and towards the playoffs.

"Il Mago"

Lately criticism has abounded concerning Raptors forward AndreaBargnani, initially justified, now provided by columnists seeking topics, attempting to feed a need. Evaluating Bargnani is challenging, on account of several injuries affecting his performance since late last season. Foot and knee injuries have deprived “Il Mago” of his quickness and first step. The first months of his career had been promising and raised everyone’s expectations.

Now, the knives are out. But anyone who writes off a draft pick in their second year is asking to become a victim of other general managers, ignoring the precedent set by Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Garnett, the last three M.V.P. winners who struggled mightily during their second seasons.

Obviously, Bargnani is not at this level - the entire draft class was considered weak at the time - but pundits have been disappointed by a range of talents, from Tracy McGrady to Kwame Brown, so any number of paths are possible.

Andrea Bargnani stated the Raptors’ first few games of 07-08, playing a quasi-Euro centre next to Chris Bosh’s power forward. After a number of underwhelming performances, he was bench in favour of Rasho Nesterovic and coach Sam Mitchell has inconsistently dispersed minutes since. Now, as of Saturday’s game in Phoenix, the Italian is back in the starting lineup, apparently to stay.

Nesterovic is a vastly underrated defender who possesses an array of post moves. Despite occasionally poor shot selection, he deserves to start in the Association. Toronto will suffer if he continues to be DNP-CDed. Bargnani could become stronger but if he followed Nesterovic’s example of persistence he would immediately become a better defender. Adding more inside post moves to his game would allow him to become more like Arvydas Sabonis, and other players who combined inside and outside games.

Starting again as Toronto’s centre, Bargnani performed much better in his increased role. In addition to improving his ability to defend, he could develop his decisiveness and confidence in order to play with more aggressiveness, draw fouls, and shoot higher percentage shots. Few possess Bargnani’s skill set but it is meaningless if he doesn’t use it to the fullest extent.

Jamario Moon should be benched in favour of Bargnani. Certainly, Moon’s “joie de jouer” and vertical leap have endeared him to Toronto fans but he performs inconsistently and if anyone should give up minutes, it is him.

Currently, Moon’s main flaw is a tendency to force outside shots and avoid driving to the basket to force contact. This is similar to what Bargnani should improve so if he doesn’t want to play with more intensity, Moon should continue to receive the benefit of the doubt. But Jamario Moon does not need to play forty minutes per game so there is certainly room to scale back his burn.

This decision is slightly complicated by Toronto’s system, which works best when sparked by the defence. The offence struggles the most when the players (Jason Kapono, Carlos Delfino, T.J. Ford) jack bad outside shots. The last thing the Raptors need is more weak defence and outside shooting. Attacking the basket, posting up, cutting, sharing the ball, making reasonable outside shots: all attributes of Bargnani’s that can jumpstart the Raptor’s motion offence -- if he wants to.

Posts Do More Than Merely Hold Up Stop Signs

Down the stretch last night in Portland, the Toronto Raptors’ offence sputtered and stalled, ultimately failing. Aside from Anothy Parker’s awesome dunk (plus the harm) off a dribble-pick, execution was disastrous.

José Calderon bounced the ball off his foot. I see the benefit of surprising the opposition by eschewing the timeout and subsequently exploding in transition to split two defenders but it’s a risky move that - given the situation - should only be attempted with supreme confidence and a high chance of success.

Jason Kapono traveled while spotting up. I hate the quick score and foul play; eventually shooting skill improves to a level where at least 1.2 points is the expected outcome of two bonus free throw attempts. A team down three with 2-3 defensive possessions remaining needs to score at least seven points to win, if they are fouling for the ball. Whether the three was appropriate or not is irrelevant since Kapono appeared totally bewildered and unprepared. Instead of getting his hands ready to catch the ball and shoot after inbounding, he shuffled his feet and walked.

Lastly, Chris Bosh did not receive any touches inside during the last few possessions before the game was decided. On YouTube, Hakeem Olajuwon demonstrates how a great post can transform a team (Dejan Bodiroga does likewise for great footwork). I don’t sense that Bosh is an elite post but he has the potential to be quite effective when he attacks the rack. Bosh needs to believe in himself and forget the easy jumpshot in favour of the drive. The team needs to believe in him and give him the ball at critical junctures.

Inside-outside jumpshots have a much higher percentage than when Carlos Delfino or Andrea Bargnani force something up. Close but no cigar; fourth in the East is far from an Association title. Play hard, play smart, play together.

Occam's Razor

In two of their last three games, the Toronto Raptors have come from behind in the second half. The final result belying severe offensive difficulties, the stark contrast in first and second half performances providing a virtual manual regarding how to win basketball games. Truly it’s no mystery.

For example, the Raptors took too many jumpers early in last night’s game with the Los Angeles Clippers. If Tim Thomas were guarding me, I would post him up. When Chris Bosh realized this and began attacking the basket, he began scoring, going to the line, and drawing the double-time. A rocker-step - a tremendous post move - wastes possessions eighteen feet away from the hoop.

Clippers Centre Chris Kaman was destroying Toronto’s interior defense until Rasho Nesterovic commenced fighting him for every inch of the pain. Kaman was forced to start post moves further away from the basket, two dribble moves yielding worse shots than a seal followed by a drop-step. Kaman was also exhausted after the third quarter and noticeably less effective. When pressured, Los Angeles threw atrocious post entry passes.

Friday against the Indiana Pacers, the Raptors’ defence permitted excessive high percentage shots, only to clamp down in the second half. Teams that get ahead early stay ahead more often than not and comeback wins are misleading exceptions. An opponent scoring ceaselessly is combated by remaining discipline and taking good shots. The best pressure defence is to score often. When someone like Mike Dunleavy is going off, attacking him at the other end, like Toronto did with Jason Kapono and Carlos Delfino, often proves to be a successful course of action.

“Plurality ought never be posited without necessity.”
- William of Ockham

Reaching the Next Level

The Raptors failed another key test Sunday (the Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors have established that the Dallas Mavericks are not yet a true test). Boston won a putrid game, the 90-77 score unsuccessful in describing the ineffectiveness of Toronto’s play.

Boston is good, but not great. Three superstars anchor a solid rotation and the team has demonstrated the ability to play well without any one of the featured players. The Celtics played under control and relied on solid fundamentals.

Paul Pierce backed defenders down, using his elbow and shot-fakes to clear space for his jumper. Kevin Garnett scored inside and with a 10-12” jumpshot. Complementary players Eddie House and Tony Allen only took outside shots after the ball was kicked out of a double-team. Rajon Rondo used speed to exploit the snowed-in help defence. Nobody forced anything; the best players took the most shots.

In contrast, the Raptors did whatever they pleased, irrespective what would help the team win. Their offence was a Gong Show, players shooting everywhere. The team seemed to believe that the paint was guarded with an electrified fence. On-court leadership was sorely lacking; it’s appropriate for Chris Bosh to address the team in the locker room but he must first model the way.

Boston doubled the high ballscreen but Raptor dribblers couldn’t decisively move the ball to the screener. The Celtics’ second post would rotate to help so if the roll was covered, a second inside player was open (followed by a strong-side shooter when the perimeter defender helped). Toronto took too long to move the ball through that priority list, often moving the ball to the shooter too early.

In the second half, Jason Kapono/Carlos Delfino and Chris Bosh worked a nice downscreen/post seal set. However, it was abandoned too quickly. Also Bosh seemed to rely excessively on his 18” jumper. Kendrick Perkins can only do so much and should be attacked. If not by Bosh, then by Rasho Nesterovic, who received too few touches. What was most shocking was how slow Toronto’s coaching staff adjusted, if at all. Boston kept it simple and the Raptors did nothing to force them to chance.

Toronto could have dialed up the defence, perhaps even pressuring judiciously. Trapping Rondo might have kept him off-balance and affected his ability to distribute the ball. They could have run more, maybe throwing the ball at the rim for Jamario Moon. Since the Celtics were not allowing José Calderon to penetrate, the Raptors could have freed the point guard for a side screen with the Circle Play or something similar. Sam Mitchell has previously praised the team’s ability to make the “Hockey Assist”, the extra pass that leads to an open shot but the Raptors settled for bad outside shots on Sunday.

It was an unprofessional game all-around. The Raptors didn’t score a hundred points and the fans were denied pizza; the Big Ticket could have picked up the tab and bought pie out of respect for those who had to sit through that game.

Rising to the Occasion

Criticisms abound regarding Bob Delaney’s pass on the contact between LeBron James and Bruce Bowen during Cleveland’s last three-pointer Wednesday. Whilst Bowen’s physical defence straddles a fine line between fair and foul and his persistence on the perimeter is certainly a challenge that his opponent must overcome, the play in question was not particularly relevant to the outcome of Game 3.

• The Cavaliers’ poor execution throughout the encounter, including the three and a half minute scoreless stretch between 5:28 and 1:54 of the fourth quarter, is mostly responsible for their loss. The Spurs provided countless chances but the home team was neither calm nor composed enough to take advantage.
• James could have redeemed his teammates down the stretch but missed a number of shots (“It’s a make or miss league,” said Jeff Van Gundy). The game’s penultimate shot was unlikely to succeed irrespective of any contact. Beyond the arc, James shot 31.1% during the year, including 31.8% at home and 27.9% in the playoffs. Cleveland had converted 3/18 three point shots to that point, buzzer beaters tend to fail three quarters of the time, and - thanks to the end-out Mike Brown diagramed which called for an outside shot off the dribble - James had a lot of momentum going to his left. All things considered, James had less than a fifteen percent chance to make that shot before the intentional attempt to foul.

The previous play, when James passed out of a double-team to Anderson Varejao, who missed a lay-up, was the Cavaliers’ last chance to win the game. James could have attacked the trap, drawn a foul, or received a return pass from Varejao and taken a mid-range step-back jumpshot. Teams must seize opportunities when they occur, a task that Cleveland was not ready to achieve.

Ball Movement

Movement makes basketball players and teams succeed: move yourself, move the ball, and help teammates do likewise. As a result of this movement, the ball will get inside with quality shots and possessions abounding.

Phil Jackson and Tex Winter believe that the Triangle Offence is not effective without penetration. Obviously neither are screen and roll plays, motion sets, nor zone offences which is why San Antonio blew Utah away in the fourth quarter of Game 4 Monday night.

Jackson believes in a 60-40 split between possessions devoted to guards and posts. According to the Lakers’ coach, offences are more productive when bigs take sixty percent of the shots in the first half and littles take sixty percent in the second half. Depending on the pace of each squad, this equates to a difference of 9.0 to 10.2 possessions each half between the two groups.

Ideally, the Spurs and the Jazz will respectively establish Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer early in tonight’s game before relying and Manu Ginobli and Deron Williams down the stretch. Teams should practice post moves, lay-ups against contact, and one dribble pull-up jumpshots in order to establish a rhythm of high percentage scoring plays for posts. When defences become extended as the game progresses, players should be prepared to find quicker ways to score.

The benefits of establishing a post presence in the first and second quarter include:

• Posting and re-posting (after a kick out the best look is often right back inside)
• Passing out of double-teams (tall players can pivot and have excellent passing lanes to find open cutters and shooters)
• Screening and rolling (all team members should learn how to read the play and execute the appropriate counter)
• Team building (anyone can learn post moves and gain confidence from scoring early and often)
• Forcing the opponent to adjust (defensive moves may open up the perimeter)

Keep feeding the posts when they succeed but keep moving. Now that the a double-team is demanded inside, there are more opportunities for guards to get their sixty percent: curl shooters, cut backdoor, post big guards, throw skip passes, penetrate and kick, set dribble picks, get to the line, fill the high post (wouldn’t LeBron be an awesome threat in the high post?), hand off the rock, get to the hole…

Phil Jackson - despite what Kobe may say - wasn’t advocating that a coach ignore their wings but by focusing on the posts first, everyone has an equal opportunity for high percentage shots when they really matter. As Gregg Popovich and the Spurs demonstrate nearly every game: movement and feeding the ball inside lead to quality shots, excellent possessions, and wins. If the Jazz figure this out they have a good team too.

2005 Redux

Both opening games of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals demonstrated the importance of mental training. I’m disinclined to blindly use the term “experience” but feel that a large component of the differences between the respective winners and losers can be described as the “mental training that comes from being there before and making use of that experience appropriately.” Self-confidence, team chemistry, pre-game planning, and court-sense are among other elements constituting the mental training.

Utah was totally taken to the cleaners by San Antonio; like the 1998 Lakers, the Jazz were unprepared as to what to expect when playing a seasoned playoff opponent. Gregg Popovich employed a post rotation to contain Carlos Boozer and sicced Bruce Bowen on Deron Williams. It’s unfortunate that the role players on Jerry Sloan’s team were unable to execute the coach’s and take advantage of a tired open.

Cleveland’s cavalier attitude in the fourth quarter was contrasted by Detroit’s intensity when the game was on the line. LeBron James and company seemed to treat winning the game as a bonus whereas the Pistons thought it was a necessity. The Cavaliers - with the exception of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, nobody wanted to get to the line or the rack - lacked determination at both ends of the court. An unwillingness to drive to the basket lowered the quality of the shots they took down the stretch.

LeBron James is the most talented player on the court, faces the largest expectations, and has been promoted as the future of basketball. He must take the ball to the basket. It seemed as if LeBron was looking to pass the ball in the last few minutes.

The pass to Donyell Marshall was not the worst decision: LeBron passed out a triple team to an open teammate in his highest shooting percentage zone. Michael Jordan would have taken the ball to the rim, made the shot, and drawn the foul, but LeBron’s decision to pass was not atrocious.

The previous play, when LeBron received the ball in the post, waited until the double-team arrived and kicked the ball to Ilgauskas for a twenty-foot jumper that they could have taken at any time. It was an utter abdication of leadership.

Firstly, Dwyane Wade showed last year how much the referees would reward the superstar and send him to the line, whether the rules called for it or now. Secondly, Magic Johnson and other elite players possessed an array of post moves that could be used with the back to the basket or facing the hoop. Thirdly, the entire play was designed to get LeBron the ball, which took about fourteen seconds -- Lebron exhausted another eight ticks jab stepping repeatedly. A rocker step would have been wholly appropriate.

A final comparison between LeBron and the superstars of the 1980s was the missed corner three point shot with 1:34 remaining. It may have been an awkward shot following a loose ball, falling out of bounds, and from behind the backboard but Larry Bird would have drilled it while LeBron merely threw it off the side of the backboard.

On the Subject of the Association, Generally

Rules Are Affecting My Enjoyment of the Game: Beyond the suspensions of Stoudemire and Diaw, which were preposterous. Bill Simmons wrote a great column and I share a number of the views that he expressed. Irrespective of flagrant fouls (if they were enforced correctly, Bowen would have about a dozen points in 2007), consistent application of the rules is becoming a huge problem.

1. Offensive Fouls: it’s too easy to draw a foul on contact that is chiefly incidental and should be a pass (see the call Bell drew against Ginobli for the push off). The responsibility should fall on the defender to show that the ballhandler has gained a clear advantage as a result of the contact. The offence should have the benefit of the doubt on close calls; I feel it’s slid too far the other way.
2. Illegal Screens: when one team is penalized for an illegal screen, it seems like there is a forty percent chance that their opponents will be nailed for the same thing on the following possession. The referees can turn their shirts inside-out if I’m wrong, but I feel they should be monitored more closely to avoid tit-for-tat situations. I think that the standards for screens could be clarified. It seems like crashing into players and going flying is an art form for certain players. I think the Association could adapt a more FIBA interpretation and permit more creative offensive plays.
3. Hand-Checking: is not applied consistently. If it impedes the ballhandler, it should be called. Some possessions this post-season have been curtailed because the dribbler was assaulted and everyone looked the other way. If offensive fouls will be tightly called, hand-checking rules should be just a stringent.

Association Rules Are for Entertainment Purposes Only: The Sports Guy thinks the league is trying to prevent another Kermit Washington-Rudy Tomjanovich incident, which was a nearly deadly fluke among a decade of constant in both the Association and the A.B.A.. As a result of the crackdown on fighting, I don’t think one player will almost kill another on the court again.

Nevertheless, David Stern is missing the big picture by not enforcing rules consistently. If the mantra is “rules are rules”, then all rules must be treated as such. Rules have three components: a definition, a set of interpretations, and a penalty. These should be clear and understood by players, coaches, and spectators. Currently, this is not the case.

One of the few positives with the way the Association has handled this series is that is now widely know that Bruce Bowen is a dirty player and will eventually hurt someone seriously. But since most of his crimes go unpunished, they are copied by both professional and recreational basketball players. The level of play will continue to plummet until the rules are rebooted and treated consistently - during the game and afterwards - and this will hurt the sport worldwide.

On the subject of Phoenix and San Antonio’s Game 5, Specifically

Bruce Bowen Drills Baseline Threes: So do Morris Peterson, Joe Johnson, and Donyell Marshall. Given how awkward Bowen is from the wing or the top of the key, he must shoot very well from corner in order to maintain his 38% overall three point percentage. In fact, the baseline three Bowen attempted in the last minute of Game 5 provided the Spurs with a higher expected point value (1.26) than had any of the other four players on the court attempted a two-point field goal (1.04).

Mike D’Antoni Occasionally Mismanages His Rotation: The Suns largely played six players, in light of the suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw. Defensively, Phoenix conceded some open looks or fouled unnecessarily. Offensively, there were some atrocious possessions were Steve Nash dribbled endlessly into the defence while shooters and cutters stood still. At both ends of the court, it seems like fatigue contributed to questionable decisions.

The go-ahead three-pointer succeeded because San Antonio moved the ball away from the defence and Nash could not get to Bowen in time. I propose that if the Suns had played a deeper rotation, using Marcus Banks to spell the guards briefly and Jalen Rose to carry some of the scoring load, they would have had more energy for defence during the Spurs decisive run

The Suns Work Very Hard on Defence but their Execution Is Sometimes Lacking: Phoenix should have doubled the post entry to Tim Duncan and left Tony Parker open outside the arc, as they did. Parker was the best option out of a set of bad choices for the Suns: Manu Ginobli was en fuego, Michael Finley was draining shots from the line of 45º - when he passed on his shot, he was swinging it swiftly to Bowen in the corner - and Duncan and Parker were consistent as usual.

Why did Leandro Barbosa make such a looping turn after the ball left the double-team? The fastest guy on the court could only recover to Parker and box him out in the Russian Spot during the shot. Maybe he could have reached Bowen if he had more energy. How did James Jones, guarding Finley, get awkwardly tangled up in the strong-side with Barbosa? If Raja Bell and Nash had not played 47 and 46 minutes respectively, could they have run and jumped Parker’s penetration better? Could Nash have closed out Bowen effectively with fresher legs?

It will never be known whether the Suns too tired to close out correctly down the stretch or if they were unaware of where the San Antonio threats were positioned during the critical play.

It’s Important to Mentally Prepare for End-Game Situations: D’Antoni should have given more thought to the rotation after the initial double. It was highly probable that Parker would penetrate after receiving the pass. Had Bell plugged the foul line, Nash quickly stepped up to Ginobli, and Barbosa switched to Bowen, I think they could have prevented Parker from getting to the rim, Ginobli and Finley from shooting, and gotten to Bowen in time to change his shot, Barbosa’s physical limitations aside.

Many complicated issues would have arisen. Shawn Marion would have probably bared the onus of stopping Duncan one-on-one in a low shot clock situation. Duncan tough to stop on the block and may have gone to the line. All five Suns would have to box out. All things considered, I think that that scenario yields an expected point value of 1.02, although that figure is more art than science.

Don’t Go Small(er)

I’ve heard that the Phoenix Suns will adjust to the suspensions of Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw with a very small starting line-up (Nash, Bell, Barbosa, Ja. Jones, and Marion) for Game 5. I think this would be disastrous for a number of reasons and feel they should use some of their bigger players (Thomas and Rose) instead.

Bench Scoring: If the best sixth man in the Association starts, Phoenix will not have any players remaining to provide a scoring lift off the bench. I’ve always felt that Leandro Barbosa is most effective as a reserve, although he has started in pressure situations and performed admirably.

This is the type of game where Jalen Rose could contribute by scoring, like Tim Thomas did last year. Like Tim Thomas, Rose can’t guard anyone but Phoenix’s success is contingent on playing at their tempo - a variable that is even more critical tonight - so some sacrifices can be made at the defensive end in order to maintain their points-per-possession.

Post Defence: Kurt Thomas is the Suns’ best hope of stopping Tim Duncan, who will go off for forty and twenty if covered by Shawn Marion. Furthermore, Marion will be in foul trouble throughout the game, Duncan will find cutters and shooters like he did during Game 4’s third quarter, and the defensive rotation will still be slow as molasses (due to a lack of anticipation among inexperienced players).

Covering Duncan with Thomas and mixing traps and double-teams when San Antonio penetrates with the dribble or enters the ball into the post is the best course of action. Multiple defenses have kept the Spurs off-balance and there will be an opportunity to play some zone. If Mike D’Antoni doesn’t keep two forwards on the court, Fabricio Oberto will also hurt them with an efficient contribution.

Offensive Execution: Sparing Marion the defensive assignment of Duncan will save his energy for the offensive end. A two-man game with Steve Nash should be the primary focus of Phoenix’s offense. The Suns must attack the basket - the officials will give them the benefit of the doubt due to the controversy - in order to take high percentage shots and put the Spurs in foul trouble. Bell, Barbosa, and Jones will have plenty of time to shoot when the defence collapses but outside shooting should not be a primary goal.

Kurt Thomas screens and rolls well with Nash. Nash will have to hit his pull-up jumper with a good percentage in case he can’t get to the rack and Thomas must make Duncan, Oberto, and Bowen pay if they don’t step out to guard his shot.

Mike D’Antoni’s Worries

It is not the end of the Phoenix Suns’ world if Amare Stoudemire is suspended for Game 5 of the Conference Semi-Finals. The actions of Bruce Bowen and others that the Association Head Office has permitted during the first four games of the series should provide some context to any suspensions assessed as a result of Robert Horry body checking Steve Nash into the scorer’s table and the subsequent melee. Suspending Stat for leaving the bench during an altercation would be neither consistent with restorative justice nor crippling to Phoenix’s chances to beat San Antonio.

First of all, the Suns would have to play Kurt Thomas more; they acquired him to defend Tim Duncan in a series like this. Thomas is a superior man-to-man defender and commits fewer fouls than Stoudemire, who has been in foul trouble frequently. The Spurs’ offence was disrupted in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game because of the multiple defences that Phoenix employed to stop the screen and roll and post play, irrespective of whether Stoudemire was on the court or not.

Thomas is smarter and quicker to rotate than Stoudemire. He can cut off Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker’s penetration in order to force a pass out without fouling as much. Thomas also possesses ten years more experience in diverse post-season situations that Stoudamire does not.

At the other end of the court, Thomas can screen and roll excellently with Nash. While he cannot create his own shot (neither can Stoudemire at this point in his career), Thomas can hit the fifteen foot shot that San Antonio will give him. Although Stoudemire is a tremendous offensive rebounder relative to Thomas, Shawn Marion is more than capable to pick up some of the slack at in that area.

When the Spurs physically pressure the ball in the halfcourt, the Suns’ man-to-man offence breaks down and all that remains is created by Nash’s ballhandling. For example, Carlos Boozer’s low-post moves drive the Utah Jazz’s inside/outside game. Phoenix lacks such a presence on the block so losing Stoudemire would be an enormous obstacle but he is not irreplaceable. Nash could continue to penetrate under defensive pressure and get the ball to other teammates in scoring positions.

Boris Diaw’s suspension is cancelled out by Big Shot Rob’s ban. Diaw’ lackluster play won’t be missed offensive but the combined absence of two players 6-8 and taller will strain Marion and Thomas on the defensive end, forcing them to expend more energy playing additional minutes. This is not a feat that those two have not performed before. Should anyone get into foul trouble inside, Phoenix will have severe problems as Game 4 demonstrated how even Fabricio Oberto can succeed in the right situations.

Mike D’Antoni’s team has many options: Four out, one in (if that). Transition baskets. Penetrate and dish/kick. Screen and roll and Circle Play options. Double-team and rotation. Run and jump. Stop the guards’ penetration off the dribble and screens. Force a lower percentage shot and starting the fast-break.

It will be exceptionally challenging if Phoenix must play without Stoudemire; hopefully the Suns won’t have to.

Performance under Pressure, Part III

The Association Playoffs have provided a number of interesting moments regarding how decision-making, self-actualization, creativity, and aggressiveness come to the surface on the basketball court and in life.

First of all, ESPN Page 2 is entirely correct to congratulate “the Golden State Warriors for making us watch the N.B.A. again.” The Warriors - led by Baron Davis and playing with a five-second shot clock - provided one of the few surprising moments in an Association that had been mundane and predictable for the past eight or nine years.

As Bill Simmons wrote, at least Golden State took chances. A number of the team’s acquisitions were plagued with injuries or off-court troubles but the players provided excellent skill, speed and athleticism, and experience. Don Nelson’s strategies defied conventional wisdom: the team chose to play with a small line-up at an aggressive tempo and multiple defensive alignments disrupted the opponent’s plans. John Hollinger commented that a key difference between Don Nelson and Sam Mitchell is Nelson’s willingness to trust veteran players and leave stars on the court despite foul trouble if the team needs them.

General Manager Chris Mullin rolled the dice and hit the jackpot with his biggest move: re-hiring Don Nelson. Mullin had assembled a team that could play with energy and tenacity but needed someone to provided that extra bit of aggressiveness and confidence on the court. Despite the proximity to the basketball season, Mullin replaced Coach Mike Montgomery with Don Nelson in late August. Mullin knew it was the right move and felt he had to take initiative, even if the team was disrupted in the short-term.

Gambling is inherently risky -- Golden State could have missed the playoffs, Stephen Jackson could have been incarcerated, Baron Davis could have injured his knee, and Don Nelson could have exploded. But they didn’t. By taking chances, the Warriors took control of their destiny and put the pressure on their opponents.

On the East Coast, the Toronto Raptors illustrated some truths about ball and life. Unlike the Golden State, they did not seize control of their series with New Jersey and there were a number of awful performances under pressure.

I think that the Raptors did not do a good job evaluating and focusing on their strengths. There was an opportunity to attack the Nets inside, with Chris Bosh’s drives from the high-post or the screen and roll game with Bosh and Andrea Bargnani. When Toronto trapped New Jersey’s ballscreens, it pressured the Nets and forced some bad decisions. On the whole, the Raptors made the series too easy for their opponents by not playing with enough aggressiveness and confidence.

This was clearly displayed on Toronto’s last two possessions of the game: a missed fade-away jumpshot and a stolen lob pass. The experienced player will drive to the basket and go to the line in crunch time: this is what Michael Jordan did over six championships and it’s what stars like Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan do today. Chris Bosh’s made a poor decision to shoot a long jumpshot when he could have penetrated into the lane and gone to the line to increase Toronto’s lead.

Chris Bosh possesses a number of very good moves from the high post. His decisions to rely too much on a square-up jumper and the occasional Rocker Step are frustrating to watch because he is choosing to limit his game.

The last possession, which was stolen when Richard Jefferson dropped to collapse on Chris Bosh, was poorly constructed. Apparently, Jose Calderon felt that the pass was “six-inches” short from being successful. Perhaps, but the pass could have also been three or four feet closer to the basket with a different spin.

The play lacked dynamism: from a stationary position it was very difficult for Calderon to complete the lob pass to Bosh. Due to the pressure of the moment, most of the Toronto team was very static, as was customary during tense offensive possessions throughout the series. More dribble penetration and weak-side action would have provided addition distractions for New Jersey’s defence and given Calderon greater options as time wound down.

Individual and Team Honours

“I think back to the people who would drop by my office and say, ‘keep your head up’ when you’re feeling down. Publicly, when I was out and about, I kept my head up, you’re never going to show people that you’re struggling with things on the inside, but when you’re sitting in your office by yourself and you’ve lost three or four in a row and people come by and say kind words, you remember those times.”
- Sam Mitchell

The Toronto Raptors bested the New Jersey Nets 89-83 in Game 2 of a first-round series and Sam Mitchell claimed the Association’s Coach of the Year Award today. The former far supercedes the latter because it is the first playoff win in five seasons but Mitchell’s citation is also meaningful because it is significant of team effort and was earned because Toronto’s coaches and players kept their heads up and succeeded despite adversity, illustrating a number of clichéd verses written over the years.

April is the cruelest month. Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and sorry he could not travel both, Sam Mitchell finds a thrill in bucking fate and riding down the endless odds. Il a mis son manteau de pluie, parce qu’il pleuvait, et il est parti sous la pluie. His is not to make reply, his is not to reason why.

Oh, all the places he’ll go. If he can dream - and not make dreams his master, if he can think - and not make thoughts his aim, if he can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two imposters just the same, his is the Earth and everything that’s in it.

“It is the eye which makes the horizon.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Preparation and attitude are two of the few things that a coach or athlete can control on game day. I’ve found the offensive sets that the Raptors run to be completely anemic occasionally (Tuesday’s win was encouraging because it shows that Toronto can compete with New Jersey and won’t settle completely for a perimeter game if faced with a combination of a zone defence and crucial no-calls) and Mitchell’s brief experience means that he has much to learn about coaching.

H.A. Dorfman comments on the fine line between athletes who are focused on accomplishing goals and those worried by negative self-talk. Greg Maddux’s mantra is to “execute pitches”; Dorfman believes that pitchers should try to “control the strike zone” or “attack the hitter” because those who fret that “they don’t have good stuff” are doomed to be hit hard.

Likewise, Sam Mitchell has been instrumental in helping this younger team come together and reach their potential. Mitchell has modeled how to remain positive and self-evaluate correctly and the team has benefited from his perspective. Coaching in the Association is exceptionally difficult, as Bob Hill demonstrated when he got a pink slip as Mitchell was getting the Red Auerbach Award.

There is room for improvement throughout the organization and it’s possible that the best path through the yellow wood is the one that Sam Mitchell is traveling. Also, props to my 2007 Championship pick, the Phoenix Suns, for not repeating last year’s mistakes and running the Los Angeles Lakers off the court during the first two games of their first-round series.

Basketball Is My Life

Reading books by Red Holzman or Bob Cousy describe playground basketball before World War II and the early days of the Association with enough detail to provide one with an excellent appreciation of the game’s history.

Basketball Is My Life: Quaintly narrated in a conversational tone, Bob Cousy’s first literary effort was written after the Boston Celtics’ first Association title in 1957. The book lacks meaningful insight into basketball but the key theme is work ethic: in basketball, business, or life. Obviously, Cousy devoted significant time to the sport but basketball is not his life. Nevertheless, given the obstacles that he faced, his drive was as critical to his success as his skill.

Cousy - one of the greatest ballhandlers of all-time - struggled to make his high school team because of his size and experienced difficulties catching on with a professional team after his career at Holy Cross. Boston passed on Cousy in the draft and Tri-Cities traded him to Chicago which folded, allowing the Celtics to draw his name out of a hat in a dispersal draft.

He also experienced a number of failures in the business world before starting a successful sports camp. One chapter describes the trials and tribulations faced by the nascent N.B.A. Players’ Association -- initially the idea was opposed by both players and owners. Without the efforts of Cousy and his contemporaries, today’s players would not have the salaries and lifestyle that they do.

The Loud Last Roar: Cousy recounts his final game, Game 6 of the 1963 Association Finals vs. Los Angeles. The text is somewhat dated and not as memorable as his first book. The point guard makes several astute points about the importance of reading the defence and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of teammates.

After winning the championship in his final game, Cousy would coach at Boston College for six years successfully and would later coach the Cincinnati Royals franchise with inauspicious results, although he did originate a number of strategic tactics that are now commonplace, for example using timeouts to save possessions.

Three Lessons from Red Holzman

Red Holzman coached the New York Knicks during the 1970s, an era when the team won two Association titles. Knicks players included Walt Frazier, Bill Bradley, Willis Reed, and Earl Monroe - among others - and they were one of the first squads to utilize pressure defence throughout the entire game. The team is also fascinating because a number of very intelligent players executed a motion offence selflessly and because of Willis Reed’s comeback in Game 7 of the 1970 Finals. It seems like everyone on the team wrote books so naturally the coach has written four, of which I read two: Defense! Defense! and Red on Red.

One of the books’ most attractive traits is Holzman’s frank commentary, using real players and teams to describe real systems and situations. The realism enhances the books, which contain many intriguing coaching ideas, such as:

Using Film to Study the Opponents: Holzman was one of the first coaches to review tapes when scouting. Knicks coaches held private film study sessions with individual players and optional team sessions before games, often screening game tape in the locker room as players dressed. This proved to be very influential, as the role of technology in sports has increased exponentially since.

Holzman also made use of a scouting network, similar to what Red Auerbach did with the Celtics, to evaluate players. At the time, many coaches did not devote much time to scouting, a field that has become an entire industry today.

Handling Pressure: Holzman adopted a casual attitude when dealing with officials, the media, and other influences in the Association. “Final is final,” he would say when he explained how he would deal with a tough loss or a bad call. It’s not that he abandoned his team on the court or didn’t reflect upon games afterwards but he had played enough basketball over the years to know not to dwell on one particular moment.

Teaching Players to Think: The Knicks were fortunate to have many smart players, like Bradley, Reed, Jerry Lucas, and Dave DeBusschere who put a great deal of thought into their games. The coaches encouraged this by allowing players to make suggestions that were honestly considered. For example, after Willis Reed suffered a hip injury in Game 5 of the 1970 Finals, Bill Bradley proposed that New York use a 1-3-1 set with him in the pivot (perhaps inspired by Princeton) to draw Wilt Chamberlain away from the basket. The Knicks came back to win that game and the series.

The Knicks also structured their offence to allow for opportunities to read and so that players could use their mental skills in two-man and three-man situations. As a result of the unique collection of basketball I.Q., the seven players from the rotation and the coach of the 1972-73 Association champions have been elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame.

A Note for Lakers' Fans

Irrespective of Kobe Bryant’s scoring average, the Los Angeles Lakers are in deep trouble because the team offence is completely gridlocked. The Triangle will not work without post entries and dribble penetration, which are two techniques that the Lakers are not currently practicing. The Lakers must establish themselves in those areas for the following reasons:

1. It will create opportunities for Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum, Brian Cook, and the rest of the bench to contribute that are not available in the current man-to-man offence. If the entire team is a threat to score, opponents cannot collapse on Kobe and Lamar Odom. Odom will also be more effective in a team offence because his torn labrum limits his one-on-one effectiveness.
2. Kobe is one of the best defenders in the Association but he cannot defend as well if he expends too much energy creating his own shot, especially in the second half. Generating easy chances in transition will help the impotent set offence.
3. Kobe and Odom will get better quality shots in penetrate & dish/kick and catch & shoot situations. Sam Mitchell believes that the shooting percentage for shots taken in the last ten seconds of the shot clock is thirty percent (similar to Phil Jackson’s view that buzzer beaters have a twenty-five percent or less chance to succeed), so the Lakers team shooting percentage and scoring rate will increase.

The Lakers will get smoked in the playoffs in five games in a series they could otherwise force to go the distance or win. If Kobe Bryant scores some fantastic figure, like sixty points, he can still carry the team to victory but it is becoming progressively more difficult for him to do this when scoring forty-something points.

Los Angeles still runs some nice cuts occasionally. They have the potential to improve because the players can make good decisions and have sharp court vision. They also have the talent to play good team defence although transition defence has been appalling lately. However, the team has lost seven out of the last nine games and nothing much has been going right.

There have been constant comparisons between the scoring feats of Kobe Bryant and Wilt Chamberlain. Aside when surrounded by smart players who helped run a team system, such as Jerry West with the Lakers or Billy Cunningham with the 76ers, Chamberlain never won. Kobe won’t either as long as he continues to go at it alone - at the expense of his teammates.

Performance under Presure, Part II

Congratulations to the Raptors and their Association playoff berth. After Andrea Bargnani’s appendicitis, Jorge Garbajosa’s broken leg, and an underwhelming performance versus Kevin Durant’s next team, the Boston Celtics, Toronto regrouped and won the next two games, clinching a playoff berth. Many players shouldered the load and the team executed well under the pressure caused by the recent adversity.

Michael Ruffin, on the other hand, did not execute well under pressure. On Friday, Washington was leading by three points with seconds remaining. After Ruffin intercepted a sixty-foot pass by Anthony Parker, he simply needed to dribble out the clock and wait to be fouled. However, Ruffin tossed the ball into the air, directly to Morris Peterson, who made the game-tying shot at the buzzer.

Clearly, neither Ruffin nor the Wizards visualized the situation ahead of time in order to mentally prepare themselves. Peterson had prepared himself, practicing half-court and other trick shots at the end of practice each day (skills that can help win both H.O.R.S.E. and real games). As a coach, Eddie Jordan could have also done a better job of envisaging his substitutions for the end-of-game situation and communicating instructions to the Washington players.

Nevertheless, it is always a pleasure to watch athletes execute well under pressure. A similar - but more light-hearted - example would be the performances of WWE superstars at last night’s Wrestlemania. For the most part, the wrestlers laid out well-conceived matches and performed to their athletic potential. Ideas like mental training, planning, and visualization apply to all sorts of performances.

Go Up for Glory

Go Up for Glory - Bill Russell’s precursor to Second Wind (a frank and honest account of sport and life that I thoroughly enjoyed) and Russell Rules (a seemingly clichéd book about leadership that I hope to avoid as long as possible) - is a fascinating account of his youth and career with Red Auerbach’s Boston Celtics.

One particularly remarkable theme is the idea of an incredibly thin line between success and failure: choosing a collegiate scholarship instead of a job in a shipping year because of a chance encounter with a scout, focusing on the game of basketball skills instead of juvenile delinquency because a coach made Russell the sixteenth member or his fifteen player team.

This theme is exemplified by Russell’s account of the 1965 Eastern Conference Final seventh game. Leading Wilt Chamberlain’s 76ers 110-109, Russell simply needed to inbound the ball for the Celtics to run out the clock and win. However, the inbounds pass deflected off of one of the support wires connecting the basket to the ceiling of the Boston Garden and Philadelphia was awarded possession.

Russell fronted Chamberlain in the post, forcing Hal Greer to chose another target. John Havlicek rotated down and stole the inbounds pass, guaranteeing the Celtics a trip to the Association finals. Boston had gone for a comfortable position, to dire straits, back to victory in a matter of moments, all based on one or two inches.

Another popular concept with Russell is the desire to win. Russell has won two N.C.A.A. championships, eleven Association titles, and an Olympic Gold Medal. Everything that Russell, Auerbach or the rest of the Celtics did was designed to help win another title. Despite their serious goals, there was also a sense of humour in the Celtics’ locker room and this helped relieved the tension of a long season immensely.

Obviously, Auerbach also possessed a phenomenal ability to motivate the team with his intensity and his basketball knowledge enable him to able to meld a diverse group of players into a solid unit. Since every player accepted their role and stayed within it, the 1956-69 Boston Celtics were the definition of a successful team.

Three Lessons from Joe Lapchick

Lapchick chronicles the life of Hall of Famer Joe Lapchick, who links the barnstorming Original Celtics to the explosion of college basketball in New York City and Madison Square Garden to the New York Knicks and the origins of the Association to the introduction of television to the sport. Despite the fact that Lapchick last coached St. John’s when the teams were known as the Redmen - as opposed to the Red Storm - the book remains relevant to today’s player and coach.

Placing Value in People: Many commented that Joe Lapchick was not the most technically astute coach but coaches such as Bob Knight applauded his skill in handling people and situations. Former players still remember how Lapchick demonstrated confidence in their abilities. His gestures may have been small but the thoughtfulness behind them was encouraging and memorable.

Lapchick was also one of the first coaches to delegate significant duties to the assistant coaches, a strategy now employed throughout college basketball. Assistant coach Lou Carnesecca was allocated responsibilities concerning defence and scouting; later he succeeded Lapchick as Head Coach at St. John’s and a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame.

Character: Lapchick maintained his sense of fairness irrespective of the circumstances. Once, during the infancy of the Association, after home-town officials missed an obvious goaltending violation by the Knicks, he stopped the game and told the scorer to add two points to the opponents’ tally.

He was also a key part of the integration of basketball, likely due to the respect engendered by the rivalry between the Original Celtics and the New York Rens. Lapchick and Ned Irish signed Sweetwater Clifton from the Harlem Globetrotters and persuaded other teams to do likewise.

Development of the Game: Joe Lapchick, Nat Holman, and the rest of the Celtics were integral to the development of the game. As players, they pioneered expert dribbling and quick ball movement. Afterwards, many became coaches and shared their skills and knowledge with others. Lapchick won four National Invitational Tournaments and Holman claimed both the N.I.T. and N.C.A.A. Tournament in the same season at C.C.N.Y..

It’s appropriate that Lapchick rests next to five Bobby Knight volumes on my bookcase. Knight was one of many younger coaches and players Lapchick helped and the Texas Tech coach still refers to his mentor as “Mr. Lapchick” to this date. Lapchick would counsel others even if it was against his best interests if his advice would help the person or the game of basketball.

Do the Right Thing

So Reggie Evans put his foot under Chris Bosh as he released a jumpshot, rolling his ankle. In response, Rasho Nesterovic punched Evans the next time that he attempted a lay-up.

“Violence does, in truth, recoil upon the violent, and the schemer falls into the pit which he digs for another.”
- Arthur Conan Doyle

Do the Right Thing depicts Mookie - a pizza delivery boy - as he tries to balance his employer, family, partner and son, and community. He eventually tosses a garbage can through the pizzeria window. After being told how he would always be welcome at the restaurant, Mookie instigated a riot that destroyed the place.

“Be strong in body, clean in mind, lofty in ideals.”
- James Naismith

Spike Lee’s film illustrates how those who are the victims of intolerance are often quite intolerant themselves. Sal’s use of ethnic slurs during an argument with Radio Raheem instigates a brawl which leads to the destruction of Sal’s pizzeria in a fire and Raheem’s death in a police beating.

“I just try not to offend anyone, set a good example, and watch what I say because words can cut deeper than a punch to the mouth.”
- Sam Mitchell

The Rivalry

Can determination trump talent? Apparently so, according to The Rivalry by John Taylor. The battles between Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain and their respective teams are detailed within the context of the growth of the game throughout the 1960s. Chamberlain was one of the most prolific post scorers in the history of basketball yet during the ten seasons that their careers overlapped, Russell and the Celtics claimed the Association title nine times.

The book delves into the psychological warfare waged between the two. For example, once Russell blocked Chamberlain twice on the same possession. When Chamberlain recovered the loose ball, Russell told him to “take it” and let him score. Over the years, Russell appeared to have gotten inside his adversary’s head and controlled their match-up despite less talent.

Russell and the Celtics put individual accolades aside in favour of winning. Boston dominated the Association for over a decade because players focused on what they did best; Russell was not offensively gifted but prided himself on playing defence, rebounding, and starting the fast break. Whilst Chamberlain accumulated statistics, a reputation as a coach-killer followed him from team to team.

It’s unlikely that another team will ever exhibit the same selflessness that Bill Russell’s teams displayed. But his career demonstrates what can be achieved in the right circumstances: two collegiate titles, eleven professional championships, and an Olympic Gold Medal.

The Last Season

I am sorely disappointed with Phil Jackson. Irrespective of the tremendous work he has performed during the current season, he took an enormous step back in the coaching profession due to the publication of his fifth novel: The Last Season.

Jackson’s chronicle of the 2003-04 Los Angeles Lakers season seems to break several confidences. What happens in the huddle, the locker room, the team bus, the plan, training camp, the video room, or an office should stay within the team, despite the dollars a publisher may promise. Apparently, Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson have a very tenuous relationship; how will detailing the conflicts between them help the two reconcile?

Secondly, several key situations are detailed where Jackson makes a decision in the face of enormous reservations. The cynic hater might say that Jackson sabotaged certain games in order to bruise Bryant’s credibility in the war of public opinion. The novel acts as a more of a tool to get a ten million dollar salary than clear the air or discuss coaching philosophy.

These Lakers are a perfect example of dysfunction, from the top down. However, Jackson does convey several useful pieces of information: the sensitivity needed to relate to fragile egos, subtle refinements to the sideline triangle, and interesting game management ideas. Perhaps most importantly is the strong case he makes for flexibility in a world that is constantly changing.

Having read Jackson’s work from Maverick to More than a Game, I sincerely hope that The Last Season is The Last Novel.

All-Star Game Notes

Although nothing could top Charles Barkley outracing Dick Bavetta, I thought that there were other interesting moments during the Association All-Star weekend worth noting:

Dwight Howard took advantage of opportunities during Sunday's game and Saturday's dunk contest to make a name for himself. Howard's athleticism and power are possibly beyond peer in the Association. Nevertheless, the weekend's results highlight that there is still room for improvement for the top pick in the 2004 draft.

If Howard acquires post moves - on the block and elbow - and a greater range for his jumper than he will truly become unstoppable. Even a thorough understanding of the basics, such as a reliable drop-step or the ability to rip through and drive anywhere on the court, would be a great improvement.

Chris Bosh performed as expected, playing under control and deferring to other scorers. A few rebounds and a good, but unremarkable, shooting percentage illustrated how Bosh earned his spot in the United States National Team. Bosh contributes solid play for a complementary post player and has no pretensions regarding his role. Hopefully, he is able to earn additional all-star game appearances in the future.

Despite the artificial nature of the game, the fundamentals still apply. The West won because they had more rebounds, fewer turnovers, and most importantly, a much higher shooting efficiency. The West dropped 52 dimes compared to 29 by the East, although this was more a sign of less turnovers and higher percentage shots rather than a symbol on their own. Even when the goal is entirely entertainment, playing smartly led to a huge victory for the West.

In addition to scorers, the All-Star Game included many excellent rebounders. Howard, Bosh, Amare Stoudamire, Kevin Garnett, and Shaquille O'Neal all demonstrated a variety moves to secure both offensive and defensive boards. Rebounding is largely effort but there are other little tricks that permit a player to use their hands and feet to their advantage.

The Wages of Wins

Reading The Wages of Wins by David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook raised interesting questions regarding assessment and evaluation. Factions contributing to victories and the rational behind coaching decisions were studied among other issues. Statistics are more prolific than ever before but whether the numbers are correctly applied remains to be determined.

Scoring and wins

Fortunately, the authors scrutinized the Association extensively, finding that scoring is highly correlated to winning. Therefore coaches should play the five players who contribute to the highest scoring rate (who also limit the opponent's scoring rate).

A player can affect points per possession by scoring more points and maintaining possession of the ball. Shooting efficiency, rebounding, steals, and turnovers are key variables. To keep the issue simple, I will deal with offensive factors and assume that the same issues are relevant on defence, but in reverse. A good defensive team should force the opponent to take tough shots, rebound the ball, and steal the ball when possible.

Apparently, rebounding (maintain possession with an offensive rebound and ending an opponent's possession with a defensive rip) is better correlated to winning that actually putting the ball in the basked. Likewise, when calculate individual Win-Shares, preventing turnovers or causing opponents to turn the ball over permits a player to compensate for below average scoring ability.

Decisions

When awarding minutes and contracts, the authors found that coaches and general managers tend to view basketball as five 1-on-1 games instead of one 5-on-5 game and attribute too much weight to scoring. I thought that Berri, Schmidt, and Brook ignored the elements of leadership and chemistry. When variables become intangible, analysis becomes incredibly complicated.

Lingering questions that are not addressed by The Wages of Wins:

1. What about the player who inspires teammates to work harder?
2. Points lead to Win-Shares but who gets the Win-Share when a ball screen leads to a basket?
3. Are there elements that permit a team to become greater than the sum of its parts?

I've studied this issue somewhat and found that it is possible to isolate successful combinations of players. The impact of leadership and player chemistry on a game that is played 5-on-5 in its finest form but can be isolated but film review, software like Dartfish, and comprehensive statistics are imperative.

Assists

Surprisingly, the assist statistic is largely negligible and not correlated to winning. I think it is still a positive occurrence because an assist or a pass that leads to an assist is unlikely to result in a turnover and will probably move the ball into a location from where a higher percentage shot can be taken.

Scoring "runs"

The authors dismiss the idea of momentum but a team that shortens oppoentn possessions by rebounding well, maintains control of the ball, and takes a good shots is likely to curtain runs by the opponent while simultaneous being predisposed to making runs of their own.

Irrespective of offensive skill the numbers and empirical evidence reveal that a team cannot give an opponent too many easy first (bad shots and turnovers that feed the fast break) and second (offensive rebounds) chances. "One and done", "the ball is 24K gold", "we're fighting an uphill battle", and other coaching aphorisms are entirely apropos when a team is losing control of the ball and the game.

The increased role of numbers and details guys

" Guys are sharing the ball and it looks good."
- Mike D'Antoni

On the Phoenix Suns coaching staff, Mike D'Antoni often makes decisions by "feel" whereas Marc Iavaroni provides more tangible analysis and facts. Like the heroes of The Princess Bride combined the cunning of Westley, the strength of Fezzik, and the speed of Inigo Montoya, a multitude of perspectives are present on successful teams.

Watching the Association on ESPN

"How can you give up a wide open three followed by an offensive rebound on the other side of the court?"
- Bill Walton, during the Spurs-Rockets game on 24 January 2007

Team defence is getting worse and worse in the Association and beyond. Conversely it seems like the screen and roll play is getting better and better.

Inbounding under their basket with few seconds remaining on the shot clock, the Spurs set a double screen for Ginobli on the foul line. Ginobli curled the screen, received a pass, and made the lay-up.

Earlier in the evening, Marion set a ballscreen for Nash in the corner. While the two defenders converged on the ballhandler, the Matrix rolled to the hoop, received a pass, and made the lay-up.

Both times, one could ask: "where's the help?" Even if the screener's defenders are caught up, help-side positioning and communication should prevent the easy basket. These principles could have enabled the Rockets to box-out Elson properly and earn praise from Bill Walton instead of scorn.

"Excellence is doing a common thing uncommonly well."
- Booker T. Washington

Inevitably - irrespective of the quality of the defence - it is execution of the little things that contributes of the success of the offence. Phoenix keeps it real, leading the league in transition baskets, slipping the screen, and pull-up jumpers. Coaches can lose their teams (and often themselves) when basketball becomes too complicated.

Many teams just suck at one end of the court. Emphasizing the basics leads to improvement. Rob Smart at Queen's has been doing a good job in this regard. The Golden Gaels' offence is a series of downscreens run for forty minutes. San Antonio ran something similar for Ginobli and Bowen. The teams execute, talk, and read, taking the opportunities the defence provides.

Leadership Failure

After losing to the Miami Heat 99-77, T.J. Ford commented that “Being out there with Chris, I don’t have to make plays all the time. And now I’m finding myself having to make a lot more plays and sometimes trying to make too many plays. And I think that’s what happened tonight with so many turnovers.”

Disappointing comments from a disappointing player during a disappointing season. Not to mention irresponsible, idiotic, and irritating.

A team’s point guard should want to make plays, not shy away from them. To demonstrate good leadership and improve performance under pressure, T. J. Ford - or any of the Raptors’ key players - should have said: “Chris is an important contributor to the team and the team will miss him. Nevertheless, it’s my role to take ownership and make more plays to help my teammates.”

As the Rock would say, players should know their roles -- and when they their roles change. Although professional basketball players are held to a different standard than pick-up players at the AC, the fact that the Raptors can’t pull themselves together lately remains a coaching failure too. It reflects poorly on the coaching staff that players did not want to step up to increase their roles or were unable to do so, mentally or physically.

Nevertheless, Ford was acquired to run the offence, distribute the basketball, and lead on the court (i.e. make plays). He may have a different leadership style than Chris Bosh and the team may display a different character when Bosh is absent. Naturally, he controls the ball less when Chris Bosh plays but when Ford is required to step up and make more plays, it should not result in disaster.

Villanueava-Ford Trade

Torn regarding the Raptors. Villanueva for Ford helps significantly in theory. Creates a direction for the team that could result in fifty wins in the Eastern Conference.

On the other hand: Trade has about a 20-50% chance of backfiring horribly due to the relative health and shooting ability of Villaneuva and Ford.

Skeptical of a deal that inspires sixty percent of Bucks fans to vote "I love it!" in an online poll. It could work out well and set the tone for Toronto’s resurgence. Think that the trade is more likely to succeed than not but less enthusiastic than other basketball addicted friends due to the risk involved.

One circuitous way to evaluate the trade is to ask if Toronto will be better than Milwaukee in 2006-07? Considering the rosters of both teams, the answer is no (on paper). But the Bucks are capped out and the Raptors are playing for the future. Playoffs are possible for both teams next year but Toronto must make more moves.

Replacing Villanueva: Villanueva’s shooting (Fred Jones, Eddie House?) and rebounding (Reggie Evans?) must be replaced and the Raptors need a guard who can defend to back up Ford (Marcus Banks?). Why not try for all of them? The lack of rumours is discouraging.

Nesterovic has played besides two of the best power forwards in the league; six points and five boards per game -- along with a seat on the bench for the second half of the last two seasons -- is his potential. Ford won’t score more than a dozen points per game. Since Toronto will lose James for nothing (Marquis Daniels was a bad contract anyways), who will score next season? Also, the Raptors must add defenders to the roster.

What’s Next: Toronto boasts half of a good team; Colangelo must find a back-up 4, a 3 who can shoot, and a 1 who can defend (a 2 with height would fit in nicely too). The Raptors are at one of those spots in a choose your own adventure book where one choice is the path to a happy ending and the other leads to total catastrophe.

The Finishing Flourish of the Brush or the Canvas?

Vince Carter are his dunks are featured in a new add where he says that "Coach says a dunk is only worth two points" before disagreeing. "Coach" is presumably Dean Smith, winner of two National Championships and an Olympic Gold Medal. It's true that dunks can change the game in a way that a lay-up cannot but their effect is over-rated by players with limited skill sets.

After VC crowned Fréderic Weis in the 2000 Olympics, France was not coming back to win the game (they weren't going to win in the first place). However, Lithuania wasn't intimidated in the least. Basketball players are professional athletes whose success is defined by whether they are still playing in June, not just their commercials. No matter how many second round series that Vince Carter loses, he will still have less credibility than Coach Smith.

Dean Smith doesn't care whether you dunk or not, just whether you score two points. When Dywane Wade or Manu Ginobli steal the ball, they finish with a simple dunk that always goes in the hoop. Fancy dunk attempts that don't go in are as practical as the avocado green in the sports coat that Amare Stoudamire has been wearing on the sidelines lately: nice as a colourful accent, atrocious when passed of as the main feature. The benefits of creativity aside, both show how some players should leave art to the real artists and focus on winning. Many athletes forget to establish their credibility before establishing their style.

Stream of Consciousness, Part IV

Phoenix: Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom shot the Los Angeles back into their series with Phoenix (29 and 21 points respectively). The Suns have to respond in Game 3 and need better performances from their forwards to do so. The Lakers don’t have anyone who can guard Tim Thomas, Shawn Marion, or Boris Diaw, who must put up more than about ten points of 5 for 10 shooting each. Steve Nash needs more help. Furthermore, Phoenix can’t play any defence and will have trouble winning games in this series if they don’t score triple digits.

Detroit: I don’t feel that Detroit is the overwhelming favourite to win the championship. However, they are a good team with experienced players who play hard, play smart, and play together. They also won’t face a challenging opponent until the Eastern Conference Finals (or perhaps the Association Finals).

The Pistons had started the same five players all year - dodging serious injury - but it appears that this streak of good fortune is over. Since changing direction and cutting is critical to Richard Hamilton’s game, the Pistons should consider benching him until his sprained ankle is fully healed. In the Detroit system, Tony Delk or Lindsey Hunter can pick up the slack. The Bucks may win one game, which won’t be that important in the grand scheme of things; the Pistons should ensure that Hamilton is on the floor at 100% vs. Miami and the Western Conference Champions.

Is Mike Brown a better coach than Phil Jackson?

According to Mark Stein, Phil Jackson chose to downplay Kobe’s offensive role in Game 1 of the Phoenix-Los Angeles series in order to allow other Lakers to score more - at the risk of losing the game - therefore increasing individuals’ feelings of self-actualisation and the team’s chance to win the series. Interesting idea.

Kwame Brown, Lamar Odom, and Luke Walton went off and the Lakers lost the game. Since the supporting cast played well, does that mean that L.A. is now more likely to win four out of the next six games? Perhaps, but I think it was an unnecessary exercise.

Jackson is smart enough to know that the coaching staff must determine what key goals must be achieved in order to win the championship. "Winning a title" is too abstract and players must focus on concrete objectives instead. Once these "tipping points" have been selected, it is up to the coaches to create the incentives that will drive players throughout the playoffs.

A team must receive contributions from all 7-9 players in the rotation in order to succeed in the playoffs. Happy, motivated, and satisfied players are more likely to play well under pressure. I would hope that an N.B.A. player does not need to score to be happy; they are professional athletes, not eight-year old children. Players at the highest level must have some level of self-motivation and gaps should be filled in by coaches and teammates.

Bill Russell, who won eleven Association championships in his thirteen seasons didn’t need to score to stay motivated. If Havlicek, Cousy, or the Jones "brothers" went off, Russell didn’t care as long as the Celtics won. Playoff wins are too valuable to throw away. Teams built around a superstar must give their guy the ball and ride them as far as they will take them (e.g. LeBron James’ triple-double vs. Washington). Necessary contributions will be made due to the skill, professionalism, and worth ethic of the other players. It would be nice if everyone were happy, but in the end everyone has to perform, on demand, under pressure.

Three Lessons for Sam Mitchell

The Toronto Raptors are a frustrating team to watch. After overcoming a double-digit deficit to claw within a single point of near the end of the third quarter, the bottom fell out. Missing dunks, conceding open threes, taking early shots, not getting back in transition, leaving posts wide open -- offence and defence were both disastrous.

The Suns torched the Raptors with the high rub. They’d slip the screen or roll directly to the basket and get dunks and lay-ups, using a cute baseline back-screen to occupy the help defenders.

Lesson #1 for Sam Mitchell: If 5-10 Andre Barrett plays thirty minutes, switching the big on little screen is not an option. My friend thought they should have run and jumped the dribbler using the high screen. Personally, hedging the screen and rotating the other post on to the screener probably would have sufficed.

The Raptors played awful D; no matter what rotation was attempted with that effort, they would have failed. They scored more than twenty eight points in all four quarters and still lost. The Suns shot58% from the field, including 56% from beyond the arc. Boris Diaw, who almost triple-doubled, was guarded by a point most of the game.

Sometimes the Raptors tried to trap the ball. But they were playing at half-speed. When I double-team, I want players to trap aggressively and sprint to recover. These dudes were jogging. Furthermore, a 5-10 player is not going to trap a 6-8 player in the Association. The defenders were late, the trap was beaten, the ball got moved and someone cashed and open three.

The Suns took the lead with a three point shot about eight seconds into the game and never looked back.

Lesson #2: Don’t play at Phoenix’s tempo. The Raptors were guilty of not using enough clock to slow down the game and make Phoenix work on defence.

Morris Peterson and Mike James scored thirty eight and thirty six points respectively. Any decent guard can score twenty five against Phoenix. They play defence like a bunch of turnstiles and allowed too much penetration and too many good looks. They’ll get killed in the playoffs if they do that against a team with forwards. Peterson and James received no help from the forwards.

Lesson #3: Attack Phoenix inside (to be fair the Raptors had no forwards who could ball - Villanueva played poorly). Use posts to play inside-outside. Penetrate and kick to force the Suns to foul. Beat up Marion and Diaw so they have less to give on the offensive end. Although Mike James was feeling the step-back three pointer, other Toronto guards took shots that were low percentage.

Some severely boneheaded plays were made tonight. The Suns are committed to their philosophy and stick to it. The Raptors showed up late to the game, fought hard to get back into it, then mentally checked out for the fourth quarter.

Coach Sam Mitchell said: “They just move the ball and they don’t miss shots.” Really? Perhaps Toronto should game plan for this next time?

The New York Knicks Are Bad

Recently, the New York Knicks acquired Steve Francis from the Orlando Magic for Anfernee Hardaway and Trevor Ariza. On the surface, it seems like Orlando got a great deal. Digging deeper - and watching the performance of the Knicks - it seems like Orlando got a great deal. I'm under no illusions that the Ariza-Milicic front line will win any titles but they aren't in salary cap hell for years to come.


If I were playing Risk with Isiah Thomas, I'd ask him to trade me Ukraine, which is strong (unlike New York's D), for Madagascar.

Steve Francis can theoretically ball but doesn't play well with others, two attributes which he shares with the rest of New York's roster. I'm glad he's fond the strength to carry on after Cuttino Mobley was traded to Sacramento, when he commented that "[Mobley] not being here is going to be tough for me. I don't know what I'm going to wake up for."


The Knicks have the most expensive starting backcourt in history (number of playoff series wins by Francis and Stephon Marbury: 0). Things have fallen a long way since the 1970s when Clyde and Earl the Pearl were winning Association titles. Back then, Larry Brown was beginning his coaching career with the Carolina Cougars, who have a higher liklehood of winning the N.B.A. title than the Knicks.


Along with Jalen Rose, New York starts three max contracts next to each other. Does any other team do this? Is anyone else this bad?


This off-season, Orlando can use their cap room to sign a second-tier scorer and a shooter who will fill the Triangle will Dwight Howard. They'll compete for spots 5-8 in the 06-07 season, when Larry Brown will be wishing he was still coaching Kansas ("Stephon, have you considered transferring?).


Talent and chemistry are critical elements of winning. Isiah Thomas can evaluate talent. He drafts well. He cannot evaluate chemistry. How are the Knicks supposed to function? What about Q-Richardson, last summer's acquisition? Why would anyone agree to a sign-and-trade with the Knicks knowing they might be overlooked so hastily? Jamal Crawford?


Playing four-out around David Lee and running all game would be an effective strategy with a pass first guard like Jason Kidd or Steve Nash. If only Larry Brown cannot push a magical button that will turn Stephon Marbury into Chauncey Billups or Steve Francis into Rip Hamilton. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts…

Too Much Burn

So Chris Bosh made the Eastern All-Star team as a reserve. He deserves it. Position scarcity, attitude, and talent make him one of the most fifteen valuable players in the Association. He's not a true post but he goes down there occasionally and exemplifies good post play. Once his shot becomes a little better and he learns to set screens, look out.

So why does Sam Mitchell want to kill him? He should not play fifty minutes in a game. The Raptors lost to the Spurs 125-118 in overtime because Michael Finlay blew up and their two best players played 94.3% of the game. The Raptors aren't a deep team but they aren't that shallow either. James and Bosh should average about forty minutes. Spreading out the shots and minutes will develop the third option the team sorely needs.

A Bad Trade for Both Teams

The Raptors traded Jalen Rose, a first round pick, and cash to the Knicks for Antonio Davis. Wayne Embry commented that it’s helpful to have cash room when rebuilding. Not to disparage Embry, but that’s in a situation when players want to play for your team. If players don’t like playing in Toronto, the Raptors need talent to rebuild. I would be surprised if there is a large free agent signing this summer and it may have been a better idea to wait and trade Rose for younger players next year.

Larry Brown said that the Knicks needed a veteran guard who could score. They shouldn’t -- what about Stephon Marbury and the fourth and fifth year guards on the team? Given that everyone drops a hundred points on them, they need a lockdown wing defender. Jalen Rose dislikes stopping people as much as the rest of the Knicks roster. New York’s management is incompetent, I suspect the coaching is poisonous, and the players are terrible yet somehow they are horrendously over the salary cap and according to Bill Simmons have screwed up their lottery picks for the next five years.

Davis won’t really help the Raptors. Bosh doesn’t need him. Davis is an upgrade over Pape Sow and Rafael Araujo but he’s still not a true centre. The benefit of the expiring contract is that there is plenty of cap room to resign Chris Bosh and Mike James. It’s relevant to note that Mike James is not a second option and the team should not be constructed under that premise. The Raptors still require a wing who can ball and some role players who can defend. According to the Spurs’ model, they have Duncan and Parker but they still need Ginobli, shooters, and defenders.

In summary, the trade is largely a wash and helps neither team. The Raptors’ future will be determined over the summer. The Knicks are in rough shape no matter what. Some of their younger players play hard and have talent, but the roster must be cleaned up before they go anywhere.

Firing General Managers, Part I

Rob Babcock got canned today. Was it the right thing to do? I don’t know.

Although still negative, my feelings for the embattled general manager have mellowed. Obviously, recent games have highlighted that the Raptors lack the wing scorer to share load with Chris Bosh and be complemented by Mike James. But I’m reluctant to re-start the rebuilding process again. All things considered, the team was improving.

Best Four Moves: I listed an additional good thing because it’s important to focus on the positive.

• Acquiring Mike James: This was a tremendous trade. Guys like James, Damon Jones, and Tony Parker complete good teams. Dealing Rafer Alson for him was a steal. However, James is not a secondary scorer and is trying to do too much lately. He needs help (via a trade) so he can focus on filling the Ron Harper spot in the Triangle (if the Raptors ran that set).
  
• Drafting Charlie Villanueva: I thought this was a reach at the time but I was wrong. Charlie V provides shooting, depth, and energy. I’d like to see his role increased so that he becomes a bona fide sixth man.
  
• Signing Chris Duhon to an offer sheet: Chicago matched this contract but it showed a keen eye for talent. A backcourt comprised of Duhon and James would be superb. He is the type of young player Toronto should target in the second round of the draft or in free agency.
  
• Hiring Sam Mitchell: Firing Kevin O’Neill was a mistake. O’Neill knew the game and would be great for a young team. However, I’m impressed with the development of Chris Bosh; Mitchell and his staff deserve credit.

Worst Three Moves

• Trading Vince Carter: The Raptors start Rafael Araujo at centre. Alonzo Mourning is a key contributor for Miami. Eric Williams cannot play defence. Where is Aaron Williams? When trading an elite player, you must get an elite player in return (Los Angeles made this mistake in the Shaquille O’Neal trade -- Dwayne Wade was the only player who had close to equal value and they didn’t get him). One of the worst trades ever. Maybe Vince was soft and cancerous but he can light it up. The Association is a players league. Make it work (see Phil and Kobe).
• Drafting Rafael Araujo: Since the days of Oscar Robertson, Bob Cousy, and Jerry West, guards have dominated the Association. What use is a 6-11 dude who loses jump balls to a 5-9 guard? Passing over Andre Igoudala, Chris Duhon, and Trevor Ariza was a giant mistake that sits on the end of the bench during crunch time.
• Matching Morris Peterson’s offer sheet from New Orleans: Overpaid ($5M/yr) and over-rated (only makes baseline jumpers). This was valuable cap room the team could have used during the 2005 and 2006 summers.

Overall Grade: C+

My question is: given the performance of the Maple Leafs, will Richard Peddie hold another news conference in the near future and announce what a tough decision it was to let Pat Quinn go?

Chris Bosh and Improvement

I updated the Post Moves of the Month for January and February 2006. February’s move was posted early because I saw Chris Bosh do it down the stretch vs. Portland and was fairly impressed. He came high ball side, drove the lane, and finished with his left hand. Bosh is continually in the process of improving himself and has become one of the top forwards in the league.

Bosh’s game isn’t perfect; he sets mediocre screens and needs to add range to his jump shot. In crunch time in the Trailblazers game, he committed two faux-pas: neglecting to box out Zach Randolph and failing to get open on the game’s final play.

(By the way, Sam Mitchell should have used a play with more options -- the Raptors almost committed a five second violation and settled for a low percentage shot. For example, if Bosh had down-screened for Mike James on the weak-side, Morris Peterson flashed to the corner, and Matt Bonner flared to a shooting spot, the Blazers would have needed to defend the entire court and could not have doubled Bosh inside. Secondly, Jalen Rose was shooting well and would have been a viable option for a return pass after he inbounded the ball and stepped on the court. Hindsight is 20/20 although at the time I was confident that Rose was going to take and make the shot.)

Chris Bosh’s name is floated in discussions about the Eastern Conference All-Star team, Team U.S.A., and possible Los Angeles Lakers free agent signings (and desevedl so). It won’t happen but four of the top 5 picks in the 2003 N.B.A. Draft may represent the United States at the Olympics. It was considered a weak pick at the time but the Detroit’s selection of Darko Milicic looks absolutely terrible now. I don’t think Toronto made a poor pick -- choosing Bosh over Dwyane Wade is reasonable due to what the team needed and position scarcity.

One can only assume that when he selected Darko as the second pick, Joe Dumars was taking the same bad acid that Rob Babcock dropped when he chose Rafael Araujo in 2004. Carmelo Anthony is better than Milicic (because he actually plays) but perhaps Dumars felt that Tayshaun Prince filled the 3-spot better for defensive and chemistry reasons. Maybe Dumars passed on Flash because he wanted Rip Hamilton to be the man. OK. But if Detroit had taken Bosh, they would be unstoppable (they may be unstoppable now). No team in the league could match up with a frontcourt of Bosh and Rasheed Wallace in the fourth quarter (San Antonio can match up with them now but would be unable to touch that lineup). Furthermore, the upcoming free agency of Ben Wallace would not be a problem. Truly, it was an atrocious selection that should go down next to choosing Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan among the worst draft picks of all-time.

In closing, I really appreciate how Chris Bosh rolls. It seems like the career of Alvin Williams has reached its conclusion so I need a new favourite player in the Association. Bosh hasn’t reached the level of Alvinsanity yet, but he has potential.

Bad Trades

The Raptors lost 105-104 to the New Jersey Nets today. Vince Carter made a three point shot with 0.1 seconds left, highlighting three points:

The Raptors were generally hosed in last year’s Vince Carter trade. Stats by Vince Carter today: forty five minutes and forty two points -- stats by players traded for Vince Carter: DNP-CDs and fifteen minutes, seven points by Alonzo Mourning in the Heat-Blazers game. Key Lesson: Trade quality for quality. The Lakers also made this mistake last year by trading one of the top twenty players in the game (Shaquille O’Neal) and neglecting to get one in return (Dwayne Wade). Don’t trade quality for garbage. It’s a recipe for disaster.

Shooters make shots. Many players do not realise that not all players are shooters. Anyone can take shots, but shooters put the ball in the basket. Key Lessons: If you aren’t a shooter, don’t take shots you can’t make. Also, when up two in a last-second situations, don’t let a shooter spot up for a three; make them put the ball on the deck.

Morris Peterson horsed around with Vince Carter and got ejected. Key Lessons: Mind your manners next to Steve Javie, don’t call the officials’ attention to yourself, and do your talking on the scoreboard, like Vince did with 0.1 seconds left.

A Basketball Rant

On Friday night, my friend accused me of going on a “basketball rant”. I was only responding to his questions about the Pistons, Spurs, and Suns so he could have stopped me at any time by stopping his questions.

Those three teams are arguably the three best in the Association. My friend’s point was that they more or less play a motion offence with a few exceptions.

Recently, Phoenix has been using this “diamond set” often, signalled by Mike D’Antoni, in addition to their transition and pick and roll games. The “diamond set” gives Steve Nash some options by setting ballscreens (do not go under the screen -- the Timberwolves hedged with Kevin Garnett, an excellent option for teams with athletic seven foot tall players). Detroit has their Circle Play for Rip Hamilton and San Antonio has been running a lot of side screen and rolls with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Tony Parker has been very effective lately. His high shooting percentage makes him one of the most effective point guards in the world. Apparently, he devotes significant time to practicing the difficult shots that he attempts in the paint.

Since these three teams have talent, they don’t need as many plays. They can set their three core players (Detroit: Billups, Hamilton, Prince/Wallace; San Antonio: Duncan, Ginobli, Parker; Phoenix: Nash, Marion, Diaw) in a triangle and let them play. Since they have excellent supporting casts, defences must respect the shooters (R. Wallace, Finley, Jones).

Chris Bosh has been as effective as Tim Duncan recently. Bosh is playing a lot of minutes and taking a lot of shots. However, he’s making a good percentage and getting to the line often. Duncan has been awful from the line lately, which drags down his effective field goal percentage.

Stream of Consciousness, Part I

Under Pressure is a great song, but not when you hear it twelve times in one night. Every commercial break … I enjoyed listening to Hubie Brown throughout the Association playoffs. Normally I want to mute the announcers but it turns out they aren’t that bad when they choose to make insightful comments … I also enjoyed watching the Spurs. Any player could learn a lot from Duncan’s post moves, Ginobli’s finesse (that left-handed drive, crossover/hesitation, explosion to the hoop, and dunk was exceptional), and the little things the supporting cast executes … For a while I thought the Spurs were going to blow it. I was dismayed by their defense against Detroit’s high rub in Game 6 (too passive) and concerned by Duncan’s scoreless streak in Game 7 (especially the missed dunk in the 3rd) but they pulled it together … The Spurs used a cute Stack End-Out to free a shooter from the 4/5 position in a low shot-clock situation.