O'Neal and Moon for Marion and Banks

The Toronto Raptors acquired Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks from the Miami Heat in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon. Bryan Colangelo has made his team much more like the Phoenix Suns, obtaining an upgrade in speed and scoring at the expense of defense and rebounding.

On Wednesday, the Raptors beat the San Antonio Spurs with above-average half-court execution and satisfactory defence. Led by Roko Ukic, Toronto was much less predictable; although they mostly alternated Flex-Ball Screen-High Rub, it seemed that the ball ended up in different hands and that there was more penetration. I’m not a fan of Chris Bosh holding the ball as the shot clock winds down before shot-faking thrice and shooting a fifteen foot jumper so I that that this was a positive development. Another difference between O’Neal and Bosh is that screens were set more solidly and post defence against Tim Duncan appeared tougher.

Now, the team will certainly run more and play more athletically. Marion’s numbers have continued to decline this year although he is an above-average rebounder from the wing. Down the stretch, the team will likely put the ball in Bosh’s hands and I’m not sure how that will work out. The Raptors don’t need to put the ball in Parker’s hands as much so he can focus more on creating his own offence. As a corollary of that, I suppose Jason Kapono will get less run unless his shooting heats up.

Post defence has improved - which is good because it was previously horrendous - but post defence is very shallow and soft. The Raptors have some options to prevent players like Manu Ginobli from dropping 37 points on them. Instead of size, the defence has more speed. Hopefully Bosh and Bargnani never foul anyone and never injure themselves.

The Raptors have some cap flexibility to get a free agent this summer and convince Chris Bosh to stay. Banks’s contract is as bad as his point guard play but it’s only five million a year, which is manageable. Moon was gone for sure anyways and needed to be moved to clear minutes for Marion. In a perfect world, it would be good if Kapono started shooting well; maybe he could be moved for a back-up post.

Potential Rotation: there are a lot of guys to whom Jay Triano can turn to for contributions. Not that there are a lot of great players but there are a lot of players with similar PERs on the bench. They are very much a European-style team. These guys should help Triano run more of his sets.
PG: Calderon/Ukic
SG: Parker/Kapono/Banks
SF: Marion/Graham/Kapono
PF: Bosh/Humphries
C/F: Bargnani/Voskuhl

The Raptors better start scoring about 85 point in the first three quarters because they will be holding on for dear life down the stretch. And fans need no longer fret whilst nervously awaiting the imminent explosion of Jermaine O’Neal’s knee.

I Wrote this While Waiting in the Airport

Like 1999, the Toronto Raptors have made a draft-day deal, exchanging their draft pick for a big from the Indiana Pacers. Like 1999, a (relatively) new General Manager is hoping that this is the move that helps the Raptors exchange their “Participant” ribbons from the past two years for real playoff glory. Trading the seventeenth pick, Rasho Nesterovic, T.J. Ford, and likely Maceo Baston for Jermaine O’Neal should do the trick.

Rasho is fundamentally sound, defends reasonably well, cares for the team, and is a nice guy … but there are also reasons why he’s always the second or third best big in his draft year, his free agent year, or most of the deals he has been involved with. He lacks athleticism and dominant post moves. No qualms with Rasho’s toughness but he doesn’t demand a double-team and won’t take over games in the fourth quarter.

T.J. Ford needed to go, sooner rather than later. Despite all of his positives, Ford’s injury risks balance with O’Neal’s concerns. Ford was also destroying the team’s chemistry and making this trade now allows Colangelo to firmly commit to Jose Calderon. With any luck, Colangelo will also commit to someone who can teach Calderon how to handle a double-team during the screen and roll and penetrate and kick against a large centre; foiling Tom Thibodeau and Dwight Howard should be two of his main goals this year.

Jermaine O’Neal is a great fit for the Raptors although the $44M contract over two years is not so good. Chris Bosh likes to work from the wing or the high post and O’Neal should complement him inside. He will be an excellent option on the block down the stretch of games and will be double-teamed, opening room for Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino. And O’Neal will post an enormous “Stay Out” sign near Toronto’s basket.

The Raptors must decide whether to start Kapono, Delfino, Jamario Moon, or Andrea Bargnani at the 3. I think that Kapono will be the best fit, as his shooting will benefit tremendously from the Raptors’ inside presence. But Sam Mitchell will have options down the stretch. Bargnani should come off the bench as the sixth man, also as the first forward back-up, until he proves he deserves otherwise and Delfino should back-up the guards.

Colangelo needs a P.J. Brown/Udonis Haslem/Nazr Mohammed-type to fill a forward spot in the rotation (unless Primo Brezec or Kris Humphries show that they have improved) and should use the mid-level exception to fill this role. Or he could split the mid-level and also sign the back-up point guard required, since Darrick Martin won’t do this year. Jamario could get some burn, but it’s imperative that he attack the rack much more. Under this scenario (two players remaining to be signed), Joey Graham is expendable but he might be the twelfth player on the roster.

Of course, O’Neal’s knee could still be problematic, Bosh’s plantar fasciitis might flare up, and Calderon could be horrendously injured at the Beijing Olympics. Irrespective of all of those possibilities, I think the deal will work. Toronto will not surpass Boston as the Atlantic Division Champion but they have a good shot at the fourth seed in the playoffs and they should take care of the Orlando Magic if they meet again in the post-season.

(Kidney issues aside, if I were Bryan Colangelo, I would have spent picks 25 or 26 trying to trade-up and get Darrell Arthur because I think he’s a nice fit for the bench or picks 28 to 33 trying to get Mario Chalmers for that back-up point spot.)

Patience is a Virtue (Most of the Time)

The Globe and Mail reports that Sam Mitchell has been keeping an even keel lately, amid the Raptors’ uneven performances. Somebody once told me - as I was raising my voice in a team huddle - that you can only feel embarrassed if you choose to feel that way. The observation was astute and memorable but all seasons reach a point when the coach needs to rise above modeling the way and make things better, as soon as possible.

Intensity has its time and place. Players’ inner motivation is far more effective than any external forces exerted by the coach. But when the inner flame is extinguished, it is the coach’s role to get the fire started again.

As regulation ended against the Spurs in Game 7 of their 2006 series, Dirk Nowitzki couldn’t be denied. It was a different story a year later in the first round versus the Warriors: Golden State was out to prove themselves and could not be denied. Perhaps Avery Johnson could have lit a fire under Dallas and rediscovered that lost desire. Likewise, Sam Mitchell could light a fire under Toronto and inspire the team to attack the basket, D-up, or crash the boards harder.

Creativity and ingenuity would immediately benefit the Raptors’ stagnant offence. (It’s stagnant because of the lack of scoring caused by the lack of movement: the ball, players, and players with the ball remain far too stationary.) But the team’s main flaws could be remedied regardless.

Mitchell could cut somebody’s burn; Delfino, Moon, and Kapono could compete in practice for fewer small forward minutes. Mitchell could make Bargnani’s role contigent on rebounding; it’s not fair for the coach to be forced to choose between skilled players and Kris Humphries in order to get minutes. Mitchell could redistribute touches on the offensive end; give Anthony Parker more opportunities to read the defence, like in that set when Bosh screens away for AP and the secondary option is an iso for Bosh.

Maybe it’s necessary for the coach to scream at the used car salesman until he attacks the rack. Everything must go, including that overused fade away jumper. Once, last season, Bosh got the ball in the high post, turned, and crammed it on Zach Randolph. It was spectacular -- a rare explosion of energy and determination resulting in two points and a win.

It’s time for Sam Mitchell to generate a similar explosion. It’s not necessary to wear the lines of the Air Canada Centre practice court to do so but it is imperative to act proactively. It’s nice to radiate an “all is well” aura when all is well. Last season, the ship seemed to right itself on its own, leading to a franchise-best record. But consistent winning requires consistent change and improvement. Right now, the Raptors need an infusion of energy to push them past this obstacle and towards the playoffs.

Posts Do More Than Merely Hold Up Stop Signs

Down the stretch last night in Portland, the Toronto Raptors’ offence sputtered and stalled, ultimately failing. Aside from Anothy Parker’s awesome dunk (plus the harm) off a dribble-pick, execution was disastrous.

José Calderon bounced the ball off his foot. I see the benefit of surprising the opposition by eschewing the timeout and subsequently exploding in transition to split two defenders but it’s a risky move that - given the situation - should only be attempted with supreme confidence and a high chance of success.

Jason Kapono traveled while spotting up. I hate the quick score and foul play; eventually shooting skill improves to a level where at least 1.2 points is the expected outcome of two bonus free throw attempts. A team down three with 2-3 defensive possessions remaining needs to score at least seven points to win, if they are fouling for the ball. Whether the three was appropriate or not is irrelevant since Kapono appeared totally bewildered and unprepared. Instead of getting his hands ready to catch the ball and shoot after inbounding, he shuffled his feet and walked.

Lastly, Chris Bosh did not receive any touches inside during the last few possessions before the game was decided. On YouTube, Hakeem Olajuwon demonstrates how a great post can transform a team (Dejan Bodiroga does likewise for great footwork). I don’t sense that Bosh is an elite post but he has the potential to be quite effective when he attacks the rack. Bosh needs to believe in himself and forget the easy jumpshot in favour of the drive. The team needs to believe in him and give him the ball at critical junctures.

Inside-outside jumpshots have a much higher percentage than when Carlos Delfino or Andrea Bargnani force something up. Close but no cigar; fourth in the East is far from an Association title. Play hard, play smart, play together.

Occam's Razor

In two of their last three games, the Toronto Raptors have come from behind in the second half. The final result belying severe offensive difficulties, the stark contrast in first and second half performances providing a virtual manual regarding how to win basketball games. Truly it’s no mystery.

For example, the Raptors took too many jumpers early in last night’s game with the Los Angeles Clippers. If Tim Thomas were guarding me, I would post him up. When Chris Bosh realized this and began attacking the basket, he began scoring, going to the line, and drawing the double-time. A rocker-step - a tremendous post move - wastes possessions eighteen feet away from the hoop.

Clippers Centre Chris Kaman was destroying Toronto’s interior defense until Rasho Nesterovic commenced fighting him for every inch of the pain. Kaman was forced to start post moves further away from the basket, two dribble moves yielding worse shots than a seal followed by a drop-step. Kaman was also exhausted after the third quarter and noticeably less effective. When pressured, Los Angeles threw atrocious post entry passes.

Friday against the Indiana Pacers, the Raptors’ defence permitted excessive high percentage shots, only to clamp down in the second half. Teams that get ahead early stay ahead more often than not and comeback wins are misleading exceptions. An opponent scoring ceaselessly is combated by remaining discipline and taking good shots. The best pressure defence is to score often. When someone like Mike Dunleavy is going off, attacking him at the other end, like Toronto did with Jason Kapono and Carlos Delfino, often proves to be a successful course of action.

“Plurality ought never be posited without necessity.”
- William of Ockham

Do the Right Thing

So Reggie Evans put his foot under Chris Bosh as he released a jumpshot, rolling his ankle. In response, Rasho Nesterovic punched Evans the next time that he attempted a lay-up.

“Violence does, in truth, recoil upon the violent, and the schemer falls into the pit which he digs for another.”
- Arthur Conan Doyle

Do the Right Thing depicts Mookie - a pizza delivery boy - as he tries to balance his employer, family, partner and son, and community. He eventually tosses a garbage can through the pizzeria window. After being told how he would always be welcome at the restaurant, Mookie instigated a riot that destroyed the place.

“Be strong in body, clean in mind, lofty in ideals.”
- James Naismith

Spike Lee’s film illustrates how those who are the victims of intolerance are often quite intolerant themselves. Sal’s use of ethnic slurs during an argument with Radio Raheem instigates a brawl which leads to the destruction of Sal’s pizzeria in a fire and Raheem’s death in a police beating.

“I just try not to offend anyone, set a good example, and watch what I say because words can cut deeper than a punch to the mouth.”
- Sam Mitchell

All-Star Game Notes

Although nothing could top Charles Barkley outracing Dick Bavetta, I thought that there were other interesting moments during the Association All-Star weekend worth noting:

Dwight Howard took advantage of opportunities during Sunday's game and Saturday's dunk contest to make a name for himself. Howard's athleticism and power are possibly beyond peer in the Association. Nevertheless, the weekend's results highlight that there is still room for improvement for the top pick in the 2004 draft.

If Howard acquires post moves - on the block and elbow - and a greater range for his jumper than he will truly become unstoppable. Even a thorough understanding of the basics, such as a reliable drop-step or the ability to rip through and drive anywhere on the court, would be a great improvement.

Chris Bosh performed as expected, playing under control and deferring to other scorers. A few rebounds and a good, but unremarkable, shooting percentage illustrated how Bosh earned his spot in the United States National Team. Bosh contributes solid play for a complementary post player and has no pretensions regarding his role. Hopefully, he is able to earn additional all-star game appearances in the future.

Despite the artificial nature of the game, the fundamentals still apply. The West won because they had more rebounds, fewer turnovers, and most importantly, a much higher shooting efficiency. The West dropped 52 dimes compared to 29 by the East, although this was more a sign of less turnovers and higher percentage shots rather than a symbol on their own. Even when the goal is entirely entertainment, playing smartly led to a huge victory for the West.

In addition to scorers, the All-Star Game included many excellent rebounders. Howard, Bosh, Amare Stoudamire, Kevin Garnett, and Shaquille O'Neal all demonstrated a variety moves to secure both offensive and defensive boards. Rebounding is largely effort but there are other little tricks that permit a player to use their hands and feet to their advantage.

Too Much Burn

So Chris Bosh made the Eastern All-Star team as a reserve. He deserves it. Position scarcity, attitude, and talent make him one of the most fifteen valuable players in the Association. He's not a true post but he goes down there occasionally and exemplifies good post play. Once his shot becomes a little better and he learns to set screens, look out.

So why does Sam Mitchell want to kill him? He should not play fifty minutes in a game. The Raptors lost to the Spurs 125-118 in overtime because Michael Finlay blew up and their two best players played 94.3% of the game. The Raptors aren't a deep team but they aren't that shallow either. James and Bosh should average about forty minutes. Spreading out the shots and minutes will develop the third option the team sorely needs.

Chris Bosh and Improvement

I updated the Post Moves of the Month for January and February 2006. February’s move was posted early because I saw Chris Bosh do it down the stretch vs. Portland and was fairly impressed. He came high ball side, drove the lane, and finished with his left hand. Bosh is continually in the process of improving himself and has become one of the top forwards in the league.

Bosh’s game isn’t perfect; he sets mediocre screens and needs to add range to his jump shot. In crunch time in the Trailblazers game, he committed two faux-pas: neglecting to box out Zach Randolph and failing to get open on the game’s final play.

(By the way, Sam Mitchell should have used a play with more options -- the Raptors almost committed a five second violation and settled for a low percentage shot. For example, if Bosh had down-screened for Mike James on the weak-side, Morris Peterson flashed to the corner, and Matt Bonner flared to a shooting spot, the Blazers would have needed to defend the entire court and could not have doubled Bosh inside. Secondly, Jalen Rose was shooting well and would have been a viable option for a return pass after he inbounded the ball and stepped on the court. Hindsight is 20/20 although at the time I was confident that Rose was going to take and make the shot.)

Chris Bosh’s name is floated in discussions about the Eastern Conference All-Star team, Team U.S.A., and possible Los Angeles Lakers free agent signings (and desevedl so). It won’t happen but four of the top 5 picks in the 2003 N.B.A. Draft may represent the United States at the Olympics. It was considered a weak pick at the time but the Detroit’s selection of Darko Milicic looks absolutely terrible now. I don’t think Toronto made a poor pick -- choosing Bosh over Dwyane Wade is reasonable due to what the team needed and position scarcity.

One can only assume that when he selected Darko as the second pick, Joe Dumars was taking the same bad acid that Rob Babcock dropped when he chose Rafael Araujo in 2004. Carmelo Anthony is better than Milicic (because he actually plays) but perhaps Dumars felt that Tayshaun Prince filled the 3-spot better for defensive and chemistry reasons. Maybe Dumars passed on Flash because he wanted Rip Hamilton to be the man. OK. But if Detroit had taken Bosh, they would be unstoppable (they may be unstoppable now). No team in the league could match up with a frontcourt of Bosh and Rasheed Wallace in the fourth quarter (San Antonio can match up with them now but would be unable to touch that lineup). Furthermore, the upcoming free agency of Ben Wallace would not be a problem. Truly, it was an atrocious selection that should go down next to choosing Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan among the worst draft picks of all-time.

In closing, I really appreciate how Chris Bosh rolls. It seems like the career of Alvin Williams has reached its conclusion so I need a new favourite player in the Association. Bosh hasn’t reached the level of Alvinsanity yet, but he has potential.

A Basketball Rant

On Friday night, my friend accused me of going on a “basketball rant”. I was only responding to his questions about the Pistons, Spurs, and Suns so he could have stopped me at any time by stopping his questions.

Those three teams are arguably the three best in the Association. My friend’s point was that they more or less play a motion offence with a few exceptions.

Recently, Phoenix has been using this “diamond set” often, signalled by Mike D’Antoni, in addition to their transition and pick and roll games. The “diamond set” gives Steve Nash some options by setting ballscreens (do not go under the screen -- the Timberwolves hedged with Kevin Garnett, an excellent option for teams with athletic seven foot tall players). Detroit has their Circle Play for Rip Hamilton and San Antonio has been running a lot of side screen and rolls with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Tony Parker has been very effective lately. His high shooting percentage makes him one of the most effective point guards in the world. Apparently, he devotes significant time to practicing the difficult shots that he attempts in the paint.

Since these three teams have talent, they don’t need as many plays. They can set their three core players (Detroit: Billups, Hamilton, Prince/Wallace; San Antonio: Duncan, Ginobli, Parker; Phoenix: Nash, Marion, Diaw) in a triangle and let them play. Since they have excellent supporting casts, defences must respect the shooters (R. Wallace, Finley, Jones).

Chris Bosh has been as effective as Tim Duncan recently. Bosh is playing a lot of minutes and taking a lot of shots. However, he’s making a good percentage and getting to the line often. Duncan has been awful from the line lately, which drags down his effective field goal percentage.

A Bad Game for the Raptors

The Raptors delivered another atrocious performance tonight, a 113-106 loss to the Pistons that is respectable because Sam Mitchell left the starters in for the entire game. There was no need for Chris Bosh to play forty-four minutes tonight, although he set a career high in points and keeps adding elements to his game.

From what I saw, Detroit torched Toronto with their signature play, the Circle Play. First of all, this play and all of its counters should be in any Association scouting report about the Detroit. Didn’t anyone read it? Bump Rip Hamilton off those cuts and force Detroit to use the second (Wallace) and third (Billups) options (ideally the fourth option if possible). Secondly, what’s Toronto’s signature play? Do the Raptors have one (besides play Chris Bosh all game and hope something good happens)?

Detroit doesn’t do anything complicated on offence. They run some guys off screens, but mostly they play basketball together, mixing up ball screens, penetration, and kicking to open shooters. In the late 1990s, the Chicago/Los Angeles (Triple Post a.k.a. Triangle) and New Jersey/Sacramento (Princeton) offences proliferated the Association. In the next few years, the Detroit and Phoenix/San Antonio (international pick and roll) offences will gain followers.

A Bad Week for the Raptors

The Raptors demonstrated some horrible execution this week. On Tuesday, they lost to Washington in overtime. To give credit where it is due, they ran a very cute side out for Charlie Villanueva to create a baseline jumper before the halftime buzzer. Usually, I find that Sam Mitchell’s quick hitters are dry and predictable, especially compared to what Kevin O’Neill would diagram. Occasionally, Mitchell comes up with a well-conceived, effective play.

In overtime, I appreciated how the Wizards ran Gilbert Arenas off repeated dribble picks. Given that Arenas had dropped over thirty points, I don’t know why the Raptors did not hedge the screen more aggressively in order to contest the shot.

At the other end, Chris Bosh was setting a high rub for the ballhandler. I didn’t think the guard did a good enough job of taking his check into Bosh’s screen. The high screen and roll is really an opportunity to nail someone and the Raptors missed that chance. Consequently, Jose Calderon, Mike James, and Morris Peterson were unable to turn the corner successfully and Bosh did not get good possessions on the block after rolling to the basket.

Is there any doubt that Peterson should only shoot baseline three point shots? It baffles me that he shoots from other spots around the arc and it aggravates me when Jalen Rose jacks a three from the line of 45º on the ball reversal or kick out when he could swing the ball to MoPete in the corner.

I missed Wednesday’s game against the Lakers entirely but I gather there wasn’t much to see. When I turned on the TV, I saw Von Wafer stroll into a key during a Los Angeles free throw while four Raptors did nothing as they watched him gather the rebound and score. Then I turned the TV off. In high school basketball, play the rebound of the second free throw after the shot hits the rim. In the CIS, NCAA, or NBA, play the rebound after the shooter releases the shot.

I am still waiting for Rob Babcock’s call telling me that he understands my frustration and will be personally refunding my remaining season tickets.