I Wrote this While Waiting in the Airport

Like 1999, the Toronto Raptors have made a draft-day deal, exchanging their draft pick for a big from the Indiana Pacers. Like 1999, a (relatively) new General Manager is hoping that this is the move that helps the Raptors exchange their “Participant” ribbons from the past two years for real playoff glory. Trading the seventeenth pick, Rasho Nesterovic, T.J. Ford, and likely Maceo Baston for Jermaine O’Neal should do the trick.

Rasho is fundamentally sound, defends reasonably well, cares for the team, and is a nice guy … but there are also reasons why he’s always the second or third best big in his draft year, his free agent year, or most of the deals he has been involved with. He lacks athleticism and dominant post moves. No qualms with Rasho’s toughness but he doesn’t demand a double-team and won’t take over games in the fourth quarter.

T.J. Ford needed to go, sooner rather than later. Despite all of his positives, Ford’s injury risks balance with O’Neal’s concerns. Ford was also destroying the team’s chemistry and making this trade now allows Colangelo to firmly commit to Jose Calderon. With any luck, Colangelo will also commit to someone who can teach Calderon how to handle a double-team during the screen and roll and penetrate and kick against a large centre; foiling Tom Thibodeau and Dwight Howard should be two of his main goals this year.

Jermaine O’Neal is a great fit for the Raptors although the $44M contract over two years is not so good. Chris Bosh likes to work from the wing or the high post and O’Neal should complement him inside. He will be an excellent option on the block down the stretch of games and will be double-teamed, opening room for Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino. And O’Neal will post an enormous “Stay Out” sign near Toronto’s basket.

The Raptors must decide whether to start Kapono, Delfino, Jamario Moon, or Andrea Bargnani at the 3. I think that Kapono will be the best fit, as his shooting will benefit tremendously from the Raptors’ inside presence. But Sam Mitchell will have options down the stretch. Bargnani should come off the bench as the sixth man, also as the first forward back-up, until he proves he deserves otherwise and Delfino should back-up the guards.

Colangelo needs a P.J. Brown/Udonis Haslem/Nazr Mohammed-type to fill a forward spot in the rotation (unless Primo Brezec or Kris Humphries show that they have improved) and should use the mid-level exception to fill this role. Or he could split the mid-level and also sign the back-up point guard required, since Darrick Martin won’t do this year. Jamario could get some burn, but it’s imperative that he attack the rack much more. Under this scenario (two players remaining to be signed), Joey Graham is expendable but he might be the twelfth player on the roster.

Of course, O’Neal’s knee could still be problematic, Bosh’s plantar fasciitis might flare up, and Calderon could be horrendously injured at the Beijing Olympics. Irrespective of all of those possibilities, I think the deal will work. Toronto will not surpass Boston as the Atlantic Division Champion but they have a good shot at the fourth seed in the playoffs and they should take care of the Orlando Magic if they meet again in the post-season.

(Kidney issues aside, if I were Bryan Colangelo, I would have spent picks 25 or 26 trying to trade-up and get Darrell Arthur because I think he’s a nice fit for the bench or picks 28 to 33 trying to get Mario Chalmers for that back-up point spot.)

Posts Do More Than Merely Hold Up Stop Signs

Down the stretch last night in Portland, the Toronto Raptors’ offence sputtered and stalled, ultimately failing. Aside from Anothy Parker’s awesome dunk (plus the harm) off a dribble-pick, execution was disastrous.

José Calderon bounced the ball off his foot. I see the benefit of surprising the opposition by eschewing the timeout and subsequently exploding in transition to split two defenders but it’s a risky move that - given the situation - should only be attempted with supreme confidence and a high chance of success.

Jason Kapono traveled while spotting up. I hate the quick score and foul play; eventually shooting skill improves to a level where at least 1.2 points is the expected outcome of two bonus free throw attempts. A team down three with 2-3 defensive possessions remaining needs to score at least seven points to win, if they are fouling for the ball. Whether the three was appropriate or not is irrelevant since Kapono appeared totally bewildered and unprepared. Instead of getting his hands ready to catch the ball and shoot after inbounding, he shuffled his feet and walked.

Lastly, Chris Bosh did not receive any touches inside during the last few possessions before the game was decided. On YouTube, Hakeem Olajuwon demonstrates how a great post can transform a team (Dejan Bodiroga does likewise for great footwork). I don’t sense that Bosh is an elite post but he has the potential to be quite effective when he attacks the rack. Bosh needs to believe in himself and forget the easy jumpshot in favour of the drive. The team needs to believe in him and give him the ball at critical junctures.

Inside-outside jumpshots have a much higher percentage than when Carlos Delfino or Andrea Bargnani force something up. Close but no cigar; fourth in the East is far from an Association title. Play hard, play smart, play together.