20 February 2008

Trades

Whether Dallas improves their current playoff hopes by trading Jason Kidd for Devin Harris, they may have sacrificed their long-term outlook. Within a couple of seasons, Harris would have supplanted Jason Terry as the Maverick’s primary point guard. As the formed Wisconsin guard reaches his prime, Kidd will be entering his decline.

Furthermore, Harris should have led a lineup featuring Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, along with a shooter and formidable bigman, who would have been drafted with the ’08 and ’10 draft picks sent to New Jersey or signed with the cap room now consumed by Kidd. As Dallas bemoans a deal made under pressure, New Jersey will be thankful that they dismantled their overpriced backcourt in 2008. The consequence of each choice is that the Nets will likely return to the Finals before the Mavs (who blew their chance with this lineup in ’06). Like the 1999-2005 Sacramento Kings, Dallas could discover how Association glory is fleeting.

The Mavs needed a true point guard, in addition to a knowledgeable coach, a tough post defender, consistent inside scoring, and tenacious wing defence. This recent swap solved merely one of many problems, and only for the time being. The natural development of Harris would have achieved likewise, with patience. The team is third in their division, behind New Orleans and San Antonio. Chris Paul and David West are better than Jason Kidd and a mystery centre; the Spurs recently acquired Kurt Thomas to defend inside, ensuring they possess all the parts mentioned above.

When constructing a team, General Managers must correctly evaluate relative value. Trading for a top point guard to combine with a so-so back-up might be worth less than focusing on the development of Harris and a younger player like Brandon Bass, who could significantly contribute to the team’s chances next year. A superstar with a weak supporting cast may lose to a well-balanced rotation, like previous Maverick teams or the current Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. After all, the San Antonio Spurs beat Jason Kidd’s New Jersey Nets during the 2003 Finals.

A lesson for all sport participants is to avoid the influence of pressure, whether double-teamed on the court or inundated by the media in the office. Thoughtful choices needn’t equate with the delay and indecisiveness some equate with taking too much time. In fact, careful consideration can still be achieved in a timely manner.

P.S.: Creativity (Sam Presti’s ability to create three first round draft picks, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and an eight million dollar trade exception simply by holding Kurt Thomas for half a season during a rebuilding year), timing (Atlanta’s decision to get Mike Bibby for next to nothing during the season when he would contribute the most towards making the playoffs), and resolve (Los Angeles’ stout refusal to give up Andrew Bynum in any trade offers) also help.

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05 May 2007

Performance under Pressure, Part III

The Association Playoffs have provided a number of interesting moments regarding how decision-making, self-actualization, creativity, and aggressiveness come to the surface on the basketball court and in life.

First of all, ESPN Page 2 is entirely correct to congratulate “the Golden State Warriors for making us watch the N.B.A. again.” The Warriors - led by Baron Davis and playing with a five-second shot clock - provided one of the few surprising moments in an Association that had been mundane and predictable for the past eight or nine years.

As Bill Simmons wrote, at least Golden State took chances. A number of the team’s acquisitions were plagued with injuries or off-court troubles but the players provided excellent skill, speed and athleticism, and experience. Don Nelson’s strategies defied conventional wisdom: the team chose to play with a small line-up at an aggressive tempo and multiple defensive alignments disrupted the opponent’s plans. John Hollinger commented that a key difference between Don Nelson and Sam Mitchell is Nelson’s willingness to trust veteran players and leave stars on the court despite foul trouble if the team needs them.

General Manager Chris Mullin rolled the dice and hit the jackpot with his biggest move: re-hiring Don Nelson. Mullin had assembled a team that could play with energy and tenacity but needed someone to provided that extra bit of aggressiveness and confidence on the court. Despite the proximity to the basketball season, Mullin replaced Coach Mike Montgomery with Don Nelson in late August. Mullin knew it was the right move and felt he had to take initiative, even if the team was disrupted in the short-term.

Gambling is inherently risky -- Golden State could have missed the playoffs, Stephen Jackson could have been incarcerated, Baron Davis could have injured his knee, and Don Nelson could have exploded. But they didn’t. By taking chances, the Warriors took control of their destiny and put the pressure on their opponents.

On the East Coast, the Toronto Raptors illustrated some truths about ball and life. Unlike the Golden State, they did not seize control of their series with New Jersey and there were a number of awful performances under pressure.

I think that the Raptors did not do a good job evaluating and focusing on their strengths. There was an opportunity to attack the Nets inside, with Chris Bosh’s drives from the high-post or the screen and roll game with Bosh and Andrea Bargnani. When Toronto trapped New Jersey’s ballscreens, it pressured the Nets and forced some bad decisions. On the whole, the Raptors made the series too easy for their opponents by not playing with enough aggressiveness and confidence.

This was clearly displayed on Toronto’s last two possessions of the game: a missed fade-away jumpshot and a stolen lob pass. The experienced player will drive to the basket and go to the line in crunch time: this is what Michael Jordan did over six championships and it’s what stars like Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan do today. Chris Bosh’s made a poor decision to shoot a long jumpshot when he could have penetrated into the lane and gone to the line to increase Toronto’s lead.

Chris Bosh possesses a number of very good moves from the high post. His decisions to rely too much on a square-up jumper and the occasional Rocker Step are frustrating to watch because he is choosing to limit his game.

The last possession, which was stolen when Richard Jefferson dropped to collapse on Chris Bosh, was poorly constructed. Apparently, Jose Calderon felt that the pass was “six-inches” short from being successful. Perhaps, but the pass could have also been three or four feet closer to the basket with a different spin.

The play lacked dynamism: from a stationary position it was very difficult for Calderon to complete the lob pass to Bosh. Due to the pressure of the moment, most of the Toronto team was very static, as was customary during tense offensive possessions throughout the series. More dribble penetration and weak-side action would have provided addition distractions for New Jersey’s defence and given Calderon greater options as time wound down.

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09 January 2006

Bad Trades

The Raptors lost 105-104 to the New Jersey Nets today. Vince Carter made a three point shot with 0.1 seconds left, highlighting three points:

The Raptors were generally hosed in last year’s Vince Carter trade. Stats by Vince Carter today: forty five minutes and forty two points -- stats by players traded for Vince Carter: DNP-CDs and fifteen minutes, seven points by Alonzo Mourning in the Heat-Blazers game. Key Lesson: Trade quality for quality. The Lakers also made this mistake last year by trading one of the top twenty players in the game (Shaquille O’Neal) and neglecting to get one in return (Dwayne Wade). Don’t trade quality for garbage. It’s a recipe for disaster.

Shooters make shots. Many players do not realise that not all players are shooters. Anyone can take shots, but shooters put the ball in the basket. Key Lessons: If you aren’t a shooter, don’t take shots you can’t make. Also, when up two in a last-second situations, don’t let a shooter spot up for a three; make them put the ball on the deck.

Morris Peterson horsed around with Vince Carter and got ejected. Key Lessons: Mind your manners next to Steve Javie, don’t call the officials’ attention to yourself, and do your talking on the scoreboard, like Vince did with 0.1 seconds left.

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