O'Neal and Moon for Marion and Banks

The Toronto Raptors acquired Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks from the Miami Heat in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon. Bryan Colangelo has made his team much more like the Phoenix Suns, obtaining an upgrade in speed and scoring at the expense of defense and rebounding.

On Wednesday, the Raptors beat the San Antonio Spurs with above-average half-court execution and satisfactory defence. Led by Roko Ukic, Toronto was much less predictable; although they mostly alternated Flex-Ball Screen-High Rub, it seemed that the ball ended up in different hands and that there was more penetration. I’m not a fan of Chris Bosh holding the ball as the shot clock winds down before shot-faking thrice and shooting a fifteen foot jumper so I that that this was a positive development. Another difference between O’Neal and Bosh is that screens were set more solidly and post defence against Tim Duncan appeared tougher.

Now, the team will certainly run more and play more athletically. Marion’s numbers have continued to decline this year although he is an above-average rebounder from the wing. Down the stretch, the team will likely put the ball in Bosh’s hands and I’m not sure how that will work out. The Raptors don’t need to put the ball in Parker’s hands as much so he can focus more on creating his own offence. As a corollary of that, I suppose Jason Kapono will get less run unless his shooting heats up.

Post defence has improved - which is good because it was previously horrendous - but post defence is very shallow and soft. The Raptors have some options to prevent players like Manu Ginobli from dropping 37 points on them. Instead of size, the defence has more speed. Hopefully Bosh and Bargnani never foul anyone and never injure themselves.

The Raptors have some cap flexibility to get a free agent this summer and convince Chris Bosh to stay. Banks’s contract is as bad as his point guard play but it’s only five million a year, which is manageable. Moon was gone for sure anyways and needed to be moved to clear minutes for Marion. In a perfect world, it would be good if Kapono started shooting well; maybe he could be moved for a back-up post.

Potential Rotation: there are a lot of guys to whom Jay Triano can turn to for contributions. Not that there are a lot of great players but there are a lot of players with similar PERs on the bench. They are very much a European-style team. These guys should help Triano run more of his sets.
PG: Calderon/Ukic
SG: Parker/Kapono/Banks
SF: Marion/Graham/Kapono
PF: Bosh/Humphries
C/F: Bargnani/Voskuhl

The Raptors better start scoring about 85 point in the first three quarters because they will be holding on for dear life down the stretch. And fans need no longer fret whilst nervously awaiting the imminent explosion of Jermaine O’Neal’s knee.

Choices and the Usual

Choices and consequences are consistently highlighted yet the message - on many levels - often struggles to get through. Recently, athletes have showcased self-evident and senseless decision-making during championship competition.

During the Champions League final, Didier Drogba, one of Chelsea’s most skilled strikers, slapped Manchester’s Nemanja Vidić with minutes remaining in added time and metres in front of the referee and received a well-deserved red card. Drogba knew that penalties were imminent but he still chose to strike his opponent rather than the ball. Minus one of their top penalty takers, the Blues lost to United in sudden-death penalties. In fact, Chelsea had a chance to win during the first five kicks and perhaps Drogba would have converted when John Terry slipped.

During Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Pittsburgh forward Ryan Malone was assessed two goaltender interference penalties. Penguin coach Michel Therrien complained that Red Wing goalie Chris Osgood dove to draw the penalties but his pleas fell on deaf ears. Both teams knew that protecting goaltenders was a point of emphasis and but Malone still chose to enter the crease. Two minor penalties leading to a 3-0 Detroit victory were dominos likely to fall.

During Tuesday’s critical Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio desperately needed a score. It appeared that Gregg Popovich diagramed a three-point shot for Brent Barry, an accomplished outside shooter who is known for inconsistent performances during clutch situations and a lack of aggression. Until that point - when the Spurs were down 93-91 to the Lakers with seconds left - Barry’s fundamentals and critical thinking had earned him 23 points.

Under pressure, the San Antonio guard got open, faked a shot and dribbled to the right. Then Los Angeles point guard Derrick Fisher landed on his check, altering the shot without drawing a foul. Had Barry gone straight up without a dribble or had the Spurs gone inside to Tim Duncan, the officials likely would have rewarded the aggression with a trip to the line and the 2007 Champions would still be playing but the team chose to take a twenty-five foot shot.

Don’t tempt fate. In school, work, life, or sport, it’s often easy to foresee outcomes and avoid them with diligence, planning, and thinking. Challenging the officials is a lose-lose proposition. Refs have to call the points of emphasis, especially when the action happens in front of them. Association refs have always rewarded superstars and aggressive play; they are liable to pass otherwise. People know this and have control over their choices, and their consequences.

The More Things Change...

San Antonio beat Dallas 97-94 last week. Same as usual (except for 2006). Tim Duncan scored the crucial points while Dirk Nowitzki fell short at crunch time. Each team demonstrated how the keys to success lie in the details.

During the penultimate play, Bruce Bowen blocked Jason Terry’s shot. Duncan immediately took the ball out of bounds because he is the Spurs’ worst free throw shooter. He inbounded as soon as possible and since the Mavericks were ill-prepared, more time elapsed and San Antonio had the best chance for points from the line.

Bowen deliberately missed the second shot with 0.4 seconds remaining and Duncan tipped the ball towards midcourt. This action started the clock and increased the time it would take to recover the ball so the concept could have been just as effective had more time been on the clock.

Not all was well-executed by the defending champions. Michael Finley overran a hot closeout, permitting Josh Howard to drive by him and dunk before help arrived. Duncan changed his pivot foot in the paint but a foul was called due to his reputation. Bowen climbed all over Terry but the official passed.

Dallas still shows many of the same flaws. When Tony Parker guard Nowitzki on a switch, Dallas’ star forward did not back down San Antonio’s point guard and post him up. Instead, Nowitzki shot a contested a fade-away jumper with a low chance of success. Dallas still lacks crunch-time shooters and needed to bench newly-acquired Jason Kidd in order to put more scorers on the court.

I don’t blame Avery Johnson for this game but it is clear that he still stands in Pop’s shadow. San Antonio knew exactly what they wanted to do and executed each play fairly well. On the other side, it seems like nobody on the Dallas team wants to take responsibility for making plays in critical situation. Despite ostensibly improving their team, the Mavericks have fallen from first overall to a fifth or sixth place team and can look forward to another long off-season.

Trades

Whether Dallas improves their current playoff hopes by trading Jason Kidd for Devin Harris, they may have sacrificed their long-term outlook. Within a couple of seasons, Harris would have supplanted Jason Terry as the Maverick’s primary point guard. As the formed Wisconsin guard reaches his prime, Kidd will be entering his decline.

Furthermore, Harris should have led a lineup featuring Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, along with a shooter and formidable bigman, who would have been drafted with the ’08 and ’10 draft picks sent to New Jersey or signed with the cap room now consumed by Kidd. As Dallas bemoans a deal made under pressure, New Jersey will be thankful that they dismantled their overpriced backcourt in 2008. The consequence of each choice is that the Nets will likely return to the Finals before the Mavs (who blew their chance with this lineup in ’06). Like the 1999-2005 Sacramento Kings, Dallas could discover how Association glory is fleeting.

The Mavs needed a true point guard, in addition to a knowledgeable coach, a tough post defender, consistent inside scoring, and tenacious wing defence. This recent swap solved merely one of many problems, and only for the time being. The natural development of Harris would have achieved likewise, with patience. The team is third in their division, behind New Orleans and San Antonio. Chris Paul and David West are better than Jason Kidd and a mystery centre; the Spurs recently acquired Kurt Thomas to defend inside, ensuring they possess all the parts mentioned above.

When constructing a team, General Managers must correctly evaluate relative value. Trading for a top point guard to combine with a so-so back-up might be worth less than focusing on the development of Harris and a younger player like Brandon Bass, who could significantly contribute to the team’s chances next year. A superstar with a weak supporting cast may lose to a well-balanced rotation, like previous Maverick teams or the current Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. After all, the San Antonio Spurs beat Jason Kidd’s New Jersey Nets during the 2003 Finals.

A lesson for all sport participants is to avoid the influence of pressure, whether double-teamed on the court or inundated by the media in the office. Thoughtful choices needn’t equate with the delay and indecisiveness some equate with taking too much time. In fact, careful consideration can still be achieved in a timely manner.

P.S.: Creativity (Sam Presti’s ability to create three first round draft picks, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and an eight million dollar trade exception simply by holding Kurt Thomas for half a season during a rebuilding year), timing (Atlanta’s decision to get Mike Bibby for next to nothing during the season when he would contribute the most towards making the playoffs), and resolve (Los Angeles’ stout refusal to give up Andrew Bynum in any trade offers) also help.

Perspective

Pressure basketball has succeeded at almost every level (we all remember Rick Pitino’s failed transition to the Association in 1997) for a number of good reasons. Dialing up the intensity increases the sport’s difficulty and certain teams play much better at faster tempos, for starters.

Naturally, teams troubled by pressure can always practice. Talent is the single biggest factor for winning games (the reason Pitino’s Celtics floundered was because they did not win the 1997 lotttery) and passing, dribbling, cutting, and other skills can always be improved. Scoring also reverses the pressure by curtailing the opponent’s fast break; scoring is highly dependant on talent and mental training.

But the biggest improvements must concern mental training. First of all, teams must possess the capabilities to “slow it down”: see openings before they occur, understand what is happening, deconstruct the play into a collection of manageable actions, and take initiative to attack the opponent rather than watching the full-court pressure from afar. Intelligence is the great equalizer in all fields.

Fear of failure raises individual tension levels. The worst outcome from a single bad pass is a turnover and two (rarely three in transition) points. The worst outcome from a single loss is disappointment until the next opportunity to prove yourself. Basketball is not the be all and end but merely the beginning of it all.

People still take the sport too seriously. I actually agree with Bobby Petrino’s decision. His position with the Atlanta Falcons was horrible: the team’s best player was jailed for two years, players would argue with him on the sidelines, and the other thing worse than their current season was what the future held. For his own sake and making the most of himself, he made the right choice to move to Arkansas. Certainly, loyalty and commitment were compromised but nobody should put excessive stress on themselves until they become Randy Walker or Skip Prosser. Perhaps I am wearing rose-tinted glasses.

If a team plays for self-actualization, the final score is irrelevant. Players can still set new personal bests despite losing -- although this becomes frustrating if repeated over time. A basketball game is just two hours in length; control what you can and execute as well as possible. Players are in total control of their own excellence. The past is the past; don’t let mistakes compound into disaster.

Players’ health is also paramount, whether on the Association hardwood or the world’s pick-up courts, and it is never justified to give anyone the Mardy Collins at any level. Coaches are under excessive pressure and this adversely affects players, from seizing up at critical situation or creating a situation where flagrant fouls (among other inappropriate actions) are acceptable.

As Tim Duncan said about Isiah Thomas:

“It’s a bad situation when a coach puts himself in that position and goes after a player. It’s very uncalled for. I don’t know what his intentions were with that and we have bigger plans than trying to hurt somebody. I would hope that people would understand and respect that and obviously they don't.”
- Tim Duncan

The San Antonio Spurs play at a different level than the New York Knicks. The goal is to get to that level. As Irv Blitzer taught the world in Cool Runnings: “A gold medal is a wonderful thing. But if you’re not enough without one, you’ll never be enough with one.”

So relax, keep it real, and handle all basketball situations with peace of minds that comes from the self-satisfaction of knowing you did your best to be the best you are capable of becoming. Personal and team success comprise the big picture.

Rising to the Occasion

Criticisms abound regarding Bob Delaney’s pass on the contact between LeBron James and Bruce Bowen during Cleveland’s last three-pointer Wednesday. Whilst Bowen’s physical defence straddles a fine line between fair and foul and his persistence on the perimeter is certainly a challenge that his opponent must overcome, the play in question was not particularly relevant to the outcome of Game 3.

• The Cavaliers’ poor execution throughout the encounter, including the three and a half minute scoreless stretch between 5:28 and 1:54 of the fourth quarter, is mostly responsible for their loss. The Spurs provided countless chances but the home team was neither calm nor composed enough to take advantage.
• James could have redeemed his teammates down the stretch but missed a number of shots (“It’s a make or miss league,” said Jeff Van Gundy). The game’s penultimate shot was unlikely to succeed irrespective of any contact. Beyond the arc, James shot 31.1% during the year, including 31.8% at home and 27.9% in the playoffs. Cleveland had converted 3/18 three point shots to that point, buzzer beaters tend to fail three quarters of the time, and - thanks to the end-out Mike Brown diagramed which called for an outside shot off the dribble - James had a lot of momentum going to his left. All things considered, James had less than a fifteen percent chance to make that shot before the intentional attempt to foul.

The previous play, when James passed out of a double-team to Anderson Varejao, who missed a lay-up, was the Cavaliers’ last chance to win the game. James could have attacked the trap, drawn a foul, or received a return pass from Varejao and taken a mid-range step-back jumpshot. Teams must seize opportunities when they occur, a task that Cleveland was not ready to achieve.

Ball Movement

Movement makes basketball players and teams succeed: move yourself, move the ball, and help teammates do likewise. As a result of this movement, the ball will get inside with quality shots and possessions abounding.

Phil Jackson and Tex Winter believe that the Triangle Offence is not effective without penetration. Obviously neither are screen and roll plays, motion sets, nor zone offences which is why San Antonio blew Utah away in the fourth quarter of Game 4 Monday night.

Jackson believes in a 60-40 split between possessions devoted to guards and posts. According to the Lakers’ coach, offences are more productive when bigs take sixty percent of the shots in the first half and littles take sixty percent in the second half. Depending on the pace of each squad, this equates to a difference of 9.0 to 10.2 possessions each half between the two groups.

Ideally, the Spurs and the Jazz will respectively establish Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer early in tonight’s game before relying and Manu Ginobli and Deron Williams down the stretch. Teams should practice post moves, lay-ups against contact, and one dribble pull-up jumpshots in order to establish a rhythm of high percentage scoring plays for posts. When defences become extended as the game progresses, players should be prepared to find quicker ways to score.

The benefits of establishing a post presence in the first and second quarter include:

• Posting and re-posting (after a kick out the best look is often right back inside)
• Passing out of double-teams (tall players can pivot and have excellent passing lanes to find open cutters and shooters)
• Screening and rolling (all team members should learn how to read the play and execute the appropriate counter)
• Team building (anyone can learn post moves and gain confidence from scoring early and often)
• Forcing the opponent to adjust (defensive moves may open up the perimeter)

Keep feeding the posts when they succeed but keep moving. Now that the a double-team is demanded inside, there are more opportunities for guards to get their sixty percent: curl shooters, cut backdoor, post big guards, throw skip passes, penetrate and kick, set dribble picks, get to the line, fill the high post (wouldn’t LeBron be an awesome threat in the high post?), hand off the rock, get to the hole…

Phil Jackson - despite what Kobe may say - wasn’t advocating that a coach ignore their wings but by focusing on the posts first, everyone has an equal opportunity for high percentage shots when they really matter. As Gregg Popovich and the Spurs demonstrate nearly every game: movement and feeding the ball inside lead to quality shots, excellent possessions, and wins. If the Jazz figure this out they have a good team too.

2005 Redux

Both opening games of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals demonstrated the importance of mental training. I’m disinclined to blindly use the term “experience” but feel that a large component of the differences between the respective winners and losers can be described as the “mental training that comes from being there before and making use of that experience appropriately.” Self-confidence, team chemistry, pre-game planning, and court-sense are among other elements constituting the mental training.

Utah was totally taken to the cleaners by San Antonio; like the 1998 Lakers, the Jazz were unprepared as to what to expect when playing a seasoned playoff opponent. Gregg Popovich employed a post rotation to contain Carlos Boozer and sicced Bruce Bowen on Deron Williams. It’s unfortunate that the role players on Jerry Sloan’s team were unable to execute the coach’s and take advantage of a tired open.

Cleveland’s cavalier attitude in the fourth quarter was contrasted by Detroit’s intensity when the game was on the line. LeBron James and company seemed to treat winning the game as a bonus whereas the Pistons thought it was a necessity. The Cavaliers - with the exception of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, nobody wanted to get to the line or the rack - lacked determination at both ends of the court. An unwillingness to drive to the basket lowered the quality of the shots they took down the stretch.

LeBron James is the most talented player on the court, faces the largest expectations, and has been promoted as the future of basketball. He must take the ball to the basket. It seemed as if LeBron was looking to pass the ball in the last few minutes.

The pass to Donyell Marshall was not the worst decision: LeBron passed out a triple team to an open teammate in his highest shooting percentage zone. Michael Jordan would have taken the ball to the rim, made the shot, and drawn the foul, but LeBron’s decision to pass was not atrocious.

The previous play, when LeBron received the ball in the post, waited until the double-team arrived and kicked the ball to Ilgauskas for a twenty-foot jumper that they could have taken at any time. It was an utter abdication of leadership.

Firstly, Dwyane Wade showed last year how much the referees would reward the superstar and send him to the line, whether the rules called for it or now. Secondly, Magic Johnson and other elite players possessed an array of post moves that could be used with the back to the basket or facing the hoop. Thirdly, the entire play was designed to get LeBron the ball, which took about fourteen seconds -- Lebron exhausted another eight ticks jab stepping repeatedly. A rocker step would have been wholly appropriate.

A final comparison between LeBron and the superstars of the 1980s was the missed corner three point shot with 1:34 remaining. It may have been an awkward shot following a loose ball, falling out of bounds, and from behind the backboard but Larry Bird would have drilled it while LeBron merely threw it off the side of the backboard.

On the subject of Phoenix and San Antonio’s Game 5, Specifically

Bruce Bowen Drills Baseline Threes: So do Morris Peterson, Joe Johnson, and Donyell Marshall. Given how awkward Bowen is from the wing or the top of the key, he must shoot very well from corner in order to maintain his 38% overall three point percentage. In fact, the baseline three Bowen attempted in the last minute of Game 5 provided the Spurs with a higher expected point value (1.26) than had any of the other four players on the court attempted a two-point field goal (1.04).

Mike D’Antoni Occasionally Mismanages His Rotation: The Suns largely played six players, in light of the suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw. Defensively, Phoenix conceded some open looks or fouled unnecessarily. Offensively, there were some atrocious possessions were Steve Nash dribbled endlessly into the defence while shooters and cutters stood still. At both ends of the court, it seems like fatigue contributed to questionable decisions.

The go-ahead three-pointer succeeded because San Antonio moved the ball away from the defence and Nash could not get to Bowen in time. I propose that if the Suns had played a deeper rotation, using Marcus Banks to spell the guards briefly and Jalen Rose to carry some of the scoring load, they would have had more energy for defence during the Spurs decisive run

The Suns Work Very Hard on Defence but their Execution Is Sometimes Lacking: Phoenix should have doubled the post entry to Tim Duncan and left Tony Parker open outside the arc, as they did. Parker was the best option out of a set of bad choices for the Suns: Manu Ginobli was en fuego, Michael Finley was draining shots from the line of 45º - when he passed on his shot, he was swinging it swiftly to Bowen in the corner - and Duncan and Parker were consistent as usual.

Why did Leandro Barbosa make such a looping turn after the ball left the double-team? The fastest guy on the court could only recover to Parker and box him out in the Russian Spot during the shot. Maybe he could have reached Bowen if he had more energy. How did James Jones, guarding Finley, get awkwardly tangled up in the strong-side with Barbosa? If Raja Bell and Nash had not played 47 and 46 minutes respectively, could they have run and jumped Parker’s penetration better? Could Nash have closed out Bowen effectively with fresher legs?

It will never be known whether the Suns too tired to close out correctly down the stretch or if they were unaware of where the San Antonio threats were positioned during the critical play.

It’s Important to Mentally Prepare for End-Game Situations: D’Antoni should have given more thought to the rotation after the initial double. It was highly probable that Parker would penetrate after receiving the pass. Had Bell plugged the foul line, Nash quickly stepped up to Ginobli, and Barbosa switched to Bowen, I think they could have prevented Parker from getting to the rim, Ginobli and Finley from shooting, and gotten to Bowen in time to change his shot, Barbosa’s physical limitations aside.

Many complicated issues would have arisen. Shawn Marion would have probably bared the onus of stopping Duncan one-on-one in a low shot clock situation. Duncan tough to stop on the block and may have gone to the line. All five Suns would have to box out. All things considered, I think that that scenario yields an expected point value of 1.02, although that figure is more art than science.

Don’t Go Small(er)

I’ve heard that the Phoenix Suns will adjust to the suspensions of Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw with a very small starting line-up (Nash, Bell, Barbosa, Ja. Jones, and Marion) for Game 5. I think this would be disastrous for a number of reasons and feel they should use some of their bigger players (Thomas and Rose) instead.

Bench Scoring: If the best sixth man in the Association starts, Phoenix will not have any players remaining to provide a scoring lift off the bench. I’ve always felt that Leandro Barbosa is most effective as a reserve, although he has started in pressure situations and performed admirably.

This is the type of game where Jalen Rose could contribute by scoring, like Tim Thomas did last year. Like Tim Thomas, Rose can’t guard anyone but Phoenix’s success is contingent on playing at their tempo - a variable that is even more critical tonight - so some sacrifices can be made at the defensive end in order to maintain their points-per-possession.

Post Defence: Kurt Thomas is the Suns’ best hope of stopping Tim Duncan, who will go off for forty and twenty if covered by Shawn Marion. Furthermore, Marion will be in foul trouble throughout the game, Duncan will find cutters and shooters like he did during Game 4’s third quarter, and the defensive rotation will still be slow as molasses (due to a lack of anticipation among inexperienced players).

Covering Duncan with Thomas and mixing traps and double-teams when San Antonio penetrates with the dribble or enters the ball into the post is the best course of action. Multiple defenses have kept the Spurs off-balance and there will be an opportunity to play some zone. If Mike D’Antoni doesn’t keep two forwards on the court, Fabricio Oberto will also hurt them with an efficient contribution.

Offensive Execution: Sparing Marion the defensive assignment of Duncan will save his energy for the offensive end. A two-man game with Steve Nash should be the primary focus of Phoenix’s offense. The Suns must attack the basket - the officials will give them the benefit of the doubt due to the controversy - in order to take high percentage shots and put the Spurs in foul trouble. Bell, Barbosa, and Jones will have plenty of time to shoot when the defence collapses but outside shooting should not be a primary goal.

Kurt Thomas screens and rolls well with Nash. Nash will have to hit his pull-up jumper with a good percentage in case he can’t get to the rack and Thomas must make Duncan, Oberto, and Bowen pay if they don’t step out to guard his shot.

Mike D’Antoni’s Worries

It is not the end of the Phoenix Suns’ world if Amare Stoudemire is suspended for Game 5 of the Conference Semi-Finals. The actions of Bruce Bowen and others that the Association Head Office has permitted during the first four games of the series should provide some context to any suspensions assessed as a result of Robert Horry body checking Steve Nash into the scorer’s table and the subsequent melee. Suspending Stat for leaving the bench during an altercation would be neither consistent with restorative justice nor crippling to Phoenix’s chances to beat San Antonio.

First of all, the Suns would have to play Kurt Thomas more; they acquired him to defend Tim Duncan in a series like this. Thomas is a superior man-to-man defender and commits fewer fouls than Stoudemire, who has been in foul trouble frequently. The Spurs’ offence was disrupted in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game because of the multiple defences that Phoenix employed to stop the screen and roll and post play, irrespective of whether Stoudemire was on the court or not.

Thomas is smarter and quicker to rotate than Stoudemire. He can cut off Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker’s penetration in order to force a pass out without fouling as much. Thomas also possesses ten years more experience in diverse post-season situations that Stoudamire does not.

At the other end of the court, Thomas can screen and roll excellently with Nash. While he cannot create his own shot (neither can Stoudemire at this point in his career), Thomas can hit the fifteen foot shot that San Antonio will give him. Although Stoudemire is a tremendous offensive rebounder relative to Thomas, Shawn Marion is more than capable to pick up some of the slack at in that area.

When the Spurs physically pressure the ball in the halfcourt, the Suns’ man-to-man offence breaks down and all that remains is created by Nash’s ballhandling. For example, Carlos Boozer’s low-post moves drive the Utah Jazz’s inside/outside game. Phoenix lacks such a presence on the block so losing Stoudemire would be an enormous obstacle but he is not irreplaceable. Nash could continue to penetrate under defensive pressure and get the ball to other teammates in scoring positions.

Boris Diaw’s suspension is cancelled out by Big Shot Rob’s ban. Diaw’ lackluster play won’t be missed offensive but the combined absence of two players 6-8 and taller will strain Marion and Thomas on the defensive end, forcing them to expend more energy playing additional minutes. This is not a feat that those two have not performed before. Should anyone get into foul trouble inside, Phoenix will have severe problems as Game 4 demonstrated how even Fabricio Oberto can succeed in the right situations.

Mike D’Antoni’s team has many options: Four out, one in (if that). Transition baskets. Penetrate and dish/kick. Screen and roll and Circle Play options. Double-team and rotation. Run and jump. Stop the guards’ penetration off the dribble and screens. Force a lower percentage shot and starting the fast-break.

It will be exceptionally challenging if Phoenix must play without Stoudemire; hopefully the Suns won’t have to.

Matt Bonner and Isiah Thomas

Matt Bonner is not especially outstanding but he can shoot the three and defend inside, two commodities that are scarce in the Association. Will he play much for San Antonio? If Bonner’s shooting well, he’s another target for Tim Duncan to pass to out of the double team. I think he’s too limited offensively (off the bounce) and defensively (against quicker 4s) compared to the current Spurs line-up. If it’s true that Gregg Popovich wants to play a smaller line-up, this trade is an excellent start; Big Shot Rob can’t last forever.

Isiah Thomas got his wish and Larry Brown was fired. Essentially, like Miami, the Knicks are a collection of highly paid pieces that don’t quite fit together. Unlike Miami, the Knicks have many pieces that don’t complement each other since they were assembled with no particular plan in mind. Miami’s veterans put their egos aside and listened to Pat Riley in order to win. New York’s veterans … well it’s something new every day.

Eric Williams was never going to see the court in Toronto. He won’t see the court in San Antonio given their depth at the wing positions.

Is Pat Riley a better coach than Larry Brown? Perhaps -- but the key lesson to be learned from this series is that Riley won because he was willing to compromise and adapt his methods to the players and situation in Miami. Brown stuck to his guns, was hospitalized during the season, and later fired.

Teams have been waiting for Rasho Nesterovic to reach his potential for years and he has a large contract based on that potential. If he plays to that potential, this is a steal for the Raptors. However, he couldn’t play to that potential with Tim Duncan in the post, Manu Ginobli and Michael Finley spacing the floor, and Tony Parker penetrating.

Obviously, Isiah Thomas better win. But New York is not a team that can simply regroup at Red Lobster and win fifty games next year. In The Winner Within, Pat Riley speaks of teams coming together as a family and completing a "Mission". Miami just finished a mission that began when Charlotte upset the Heat in the 2001 Playoffs. Even if the Knicks like Isiah Thomas more than Larry Brown, they still can’t be described as a close team and if they don’t accept that they are merely embarking upon a multi-year mission, 06-07 will be just as frustrating as 05-06.

It’s hard to judge this trade without knowing what identity the Raptors wish to adopt. I hope they decide to run more. If Nesterovic screens and rolls and crashes the boards, he could put up 12 and 8. If not, he will warm Rafael Araujo’s spot on the bench at twice the price. I’m hesitant because I think there are better posts on the market who might have been a better fit. Like the first overall pick, Nesterovic’s development depends on the teachers that the Raptors are willing to add to their coaching staff.

Larry Brown’s large contract and New York City’s media spotlight obfuscate a key issue: the Knicks placed too much value on the coach. Players win games, not the coach. As John Wooden often said, his job was largely done when the game began. Pat Riley’s adjustments were better than Avery Johnson’s decisions but Miami won because the Heat performed when it mattered most while the Mavericks froze and ultimately choked.

This is a great deal for the Spurs, who get more cap flexibility to retain their supporting cast or add a veteran player or two. Matt Bonner can provide some quality minutes at a much better value than Rasho Nesterovic. If they re-sign Nasr Mohammed, San Antonio’s rotation is Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Finley, Horry, Van Exel (or a free agent replacement), Barry, Bowen, Mohammed, Oberto/Bonner, which is good enough to compete with Dallas, Detroit, Miami, and Phoenix.

Too Much Burn

So Chris Bosh made the Eastern All-Star team as a reserve. He deserves it. Position scarcity, attitude, and talent make him one of the most fifteen valuable players in the Association. He's not a true post but he goes down there occasionally and exemplifies good post play. Once his shot becomes a little better and he learns to set screens, look out.

So why does Sam Mitchell want to kill him? He should not play fifty minutes in a game. The Raptors lost to the Spurs 125-118 in overtime because Michael Finlay blew up and their two best players played 94.3% of the game. The Raptors aren't a deep team but they aren't that shallow either. James and Bosh should average about forty minutes. Spreading out the shots and minutes will develop the third option the team sorely needs.

A Basketball Rant

On Friday night, my friend accused me of going on a “basketball rant”. I was only responding to his questions about the Pistons, Spurs, and Suns so he could have stopped me at any time by stopping his questions.

Those three teams are arguably the three best in the Association. My friend’s point was that they more or less play a motion offence with a few exceptions.

Recently, Phoenix has been using this “diamond set” often, signalled by Mike D’Antoni, in addition to their transition and pick and roll games. The “diamond set” gives Steve Nash some options by setting ballscreens (do not go under the screen -- the Timberwolves hedged with Kevin Garnett, an excellent option for teams with athletic seven foot tall players). Detroit has their Circle Play for Rip Hamilton and San Antonio has been running a lot of side screen and rolls with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Tony Parker has been very effective lately. His high shooting percentage makes him one of the most effective point guards in the world. Apparently, he devotes significant time to practicing the difficult shots that he attempts in the paint.

Since these three teams have talent, they don’t need as many plays. They can set their three core players (Detroit: Billups, Hamilton, Prince/Wallace; San Antonio: Duncan, Ginobli, Parker; Phoenix: Nash, Marion, Diaw) in a triangle and let them play. Since they have excellent supporting casts, defences must respect the shooters (R. Wallace, Finley, Jones).

Chris Bosh has been as effective as Tim Duncan recently. Bosh is playing a lot of minutes and taking a lot of shots. However, he’s making a good percentage and getting to the line often. Duncan has been awful from the line lately, which drags down his effective field goal percentage.

Stream of Consciousness, Part I

Under Pressure is a great song, but not when you hear it twelve times in one night. Every commercial break … I enjoyed listening to Hubie Brown throughout the Association playoffs. Normally I want to mute the announcers but it turns out they aren’t that bad when they choose to make insightful comments … I also enjoyed watching the Spurs. Any player could learn a lot from Duncan’s post moves, Ginobli’s finesse (that left-handed drive, crossover/hesitation, explosion to the hoop, and dunk was exceptional), and the little things the supporting cast executes … For a while I thought the Spurs were going to blow it. I was dismayed by their defense against Detroit’s high rub in Game 6 (too passive) and concerned by Duncan’s scoreless streak in Game 7 (especially the missed dunk in the 3rd) but they pulled it together … The Spurs used a cute Stack End-Out to free a shooter from the 4/5 position in a low shot-clock situation.