O'Neal and Moon for Marion and Banks

The Toronto Raptors acquired Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks from the Miami Heat in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon. Bryan Colangelo has made his team much more like the Phoenix Suns, obtaining an upgrade in speed and scoring at the expense of defense and rebounding.

On Wednesday, the Raptors beat the San Antonio Spurs with above-average half-court execution and satisfactory defence. Led by Roko Ukic, Toronto was much less predictable; although they mostly alternated Flex-Ball Screen-High Rub, it seemed that the ball ended up in different hands and that there was more penetration. I’m not a fan of Chris Bosh holding the ball as the shot clock winds down before shot-faking thrice and shooting a fifteen foot jumper so I that that this was a positive development. Another difference between O’Neal and Bosh is that screens were set more solidly and post defence against Tim Duncan appeared tougher.

Now, the team will certainly run more and play more athletically. Marion’s numbers have continued to decline this year although he is an above-average rebounder from the wing. Down the stretch, the team will likely put the ball in Bosh’s hands and I’m not sure how that will work out. The Raptors don’t need to put the ball in Parker’s hands as much so he can focus more on creating his own offence. As a corollary of that, I suppose Jason Kapono will get less run unless his shooting heats up.

Post defence has improved - which is good because it was previously horrendous - but post defence is very shallow and soft. The Raptors have some options to prevent players like Manu Ginobli from dropping 37 points on them. Instead of size, the defence has more speed. Hopefully Bosh and Bargnani never foul anyone and never injure themselves.

The Raptors have some cap flexibility to get a free agent this summer and convince Chris Bosh to stay. Banks’s contract is as bad as his point guard play but it’s only five million a year, which is manageable. Moon was gone for sure anyways and needed to be moved to clear minutes for Marion. In a perfect world, it would be good if Kapono started shooting well; maybe he could be moved for a back-up post.

Potential Rotation: there are a lot of guys to whom Jay Triano can turn to for contributions. Not that there are a lot of great players but there are a lot of players with similar PERs on the bench. They are very much a European-style team. These guys should help Triano run more of his sets.
PG: Calderon/Ukic
SG: Parker/Kapono/Banks
SF: Marion/Graham/Kapono
PF: Bosh/Humphries
C/F: Bargnani/Voskuhl

The Raptors better start scoring about 85 point in the first three quarters because they will be holding on for dear life down the stretch. And fans need no longer fret whilst nervously awaiting the imminent explosion of Jermaine O’Neal’s knee.

I Wrote this While Waiting in the Airport

Like 1999, the Toronto Raptors have made a draft-day deal, exchanging their draft pick for a big from the Indiana Pacers. Like 1999, a (relatively) new General Manager is hoping that this is the move that helps the Raptors exchange their “Participant” ribbons from the past two years for real playoff glory. Trading the seventeenth pick, Rasho Nesterovic, T.J. Ford, and likely Maceo Baston for Jermaine O’Neal should do the trick.

Rasho is fundamentally sound, defends reasonably well, cares for the team, and is a nice guy … but there are also reasons why he’s always the second or third best big in his draft year, his free agent year, or most of the deals he has been involved with. He lacks athleticism and dominant post moves. No qualms with Rasho’s toughness but he doesn’t demand a double-team and won’t take over games in the fourth quarter.

T.J. Ford needed to go, sooner rather than later. Despite all of his positives, Ford’s injury risks balance with O’Neal’s concerns. Ford was also destroying the team’s chemistry and making this trade now allows Colangelo to firmly commit to Jose Calderon. With any luck, Colangelo will also commit to someone who can teach Calderon how to handle a double-team during the screen and roll and penetrate and kick against a large centre; foiling Tom Thibodeau and Dwight Howard should be two of his main goals this year.

Jermaine O’Neal is a great fit for the Raptors although the $44M contract over two years is not so good. Chris Bosh likes to work from the wing or the high post and O’Neal should complement him inside. He will be an excellent option on the block down the stretch of games and will be double-teamed, opening room for Jason Kapono, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino. And O’Neal will post an enormous “Stay Out” sign near Toronto’s basket.

The Raptors must decide whether to start Kapono, Delfino, Jamario Moon, or Andrea Bargnani at the 3. I think that Kapono will be the best fit, as his shooting will benefit tremendously from the Raptors’ inside presence. But Sam Mitchell will have options down the stretch. Bargnani should come off the bench as the sixth man, also as the first forward back-up, until he proves he deserves otherwise and Delfino should back-up the guards.

Colangelo needs a P.J. Brown/Udonis Haslem/Nazr Mohammed-type to fill a forward spot in the rotation (unless Primo Brezec or Kris Humphries show that they have improved) and should use the mid-level exception to fill this role. Or he could split the mid-level and also sign the back-up point guard required, since Darrick Martin won’t do this year. Jamario could get some burn, but it’s imperative that he attack the rack much more. Under this scenario (two players remaining to be signed), Joey Graham is expendable but he might be the twelfth player on the roster.

Of course, O’Neal’s knee could still be problematic, Bosh’s plantar fasciitis might flare up, and Calderon could be horrendously injured at the Beijing Olympics. Irrespective of all of those possibilities, I think the deal will work. Toronto will not surpass Boston as the Atlantic Division Champion but they have a good shot at the fourth seed in the playoffs and they should take care of the Orlando Magic if they meet again in the post-season.

(Kidney issues aside, if I were Bryan Colangelo, I would have spent picks 25 or 26 trying to trade-up and get Darrell Arthur because I think he’s a nice fit for the bench or picks 28 to 33 trying to get Mario Chalmers for that back-up point spot.)

Trades

Whether Dallas improves their current playoff hopes by trading Jason Kidd for Devin Harris, they may have sacrificed their long-term outlook. Within a couple of seasons, Harris would have supplanted Jason Terry as the Maverick’s primary point guard. As the formed Wisconsin guard reaches his prime, Kidd will be entering his decline.

Furthermore, Harris should have led a lineup featuring Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard, along with a shooter and formidable bigman, who would have been drafted with the ’08 and ’10 draft picks sent to New Jersey or signed with the cap room now consumed by Kidd. As Dallas bemoans a deal made under pressure, New Jersey will be thankful that they dismantled their overpriced backcourt in 2008. The consequence of each choice is that the Nets will likely return to the Finals before the Mavs (who blew their chance with this lineup in ’06). Like the 1999-2005 Sacramento Kings, Dallas could discover how Association glory is fleeting.

The Mavs needed a true point guard, in addition to a knowledgeable coach, a tough post defender, consistent inside scoring, and tenacious wing defence. This recent swap solved merely one of many problems, and only for the time being. The natural development of Harris would have achieved likewise, with patience. The team is third in their division, behind New Orleans and San Antonio. Chris Paul and David West are better than Jason Kidd and a mystery centre; the Spurs recently acquired Kurt Thomas to defend inside, ensuring they possess all the parts mentioned above.

When constructing a team, General Managers must correctly evaluate relative value. Trading for a top point guard to combine with a so-so back-up might be worth less than focusing on the development of Harris and a younger player like Brandon Bass, who could significantly contribute to the team’s chances next year. A superstar with a weak supporting cast may lose to a well-balanced rotation, like previous Maverick teams or the current Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. After all, the San Antonio Spurs beat Jason Kidd’s New Jersey Nets during the 2003 Finals.

A lesson for all sport participants is to avoid the influence of pressure, whether double-teamed on the court or inundated by the media in the office. Thoughtful choices needn’t equate with the delay and indecisiveness some equate with taking too much time. In fact, careful consideration can still be achieved in a timely manner.

P.S.: Creativity (Sam Presti’s ability to create three first round draft picks, Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and an eight million dollar trade exception simply by holding Kurt Thomas for half a season during a rebuilding year), timing (Atlanta’s decision to get Mike Bibby for next to nothing during the season when he would contribute the most towards making the playoffs), and resolve (Los Angeles’ stout refusal to give up Andrew Bynum in any trade offers) also help.

Villanueava-Ford Trade

Torn regarding the Raptors. Villanueva for Ford helps significantly in theory. Creates a direction for the team that could result in fifty wins in the Eastern Conference.

On the other hand: Trade has about a 20-50% chance of backfiring horribly due to the relative health and shooting ability of Villaneuva and Ford.

Skeptical of a deal that inspires sixty percent of Bucks fans to vote "I love it!" in an online poll. It could work out well and set the tone for Toronto’s resurgence. Think that the trade is more likely to succeed than not but less enthusiastic than other basketball addicted friends due to the risk involved.

One circuitous way to evaluate the trade is to ask if Toronto will be better than Milwaukee in 2006-07? Considering the rosters of both teams, the answer is no (on paper). But the Bucks are capped out and the Raptors are playing for the future. Playoffs are possible for both teams next year but Toronto must make more moves.

Replacing Villanueva: Villanueva’s shooting (Fred Jones, Eddie House?) and rebounding (Reggie Evans?) must be replaced and the Raptors need a guard who can defend to back up Ford (Marcus Banks?). Why not try for all of them? The lack of rumours is discouraging.

Nesterovic has played besides two of the best power forwards in the league; six points and five boards per game -- along with a seat on the bench for the second half of the last two seasons -- is his potential. Ford won’t score more than a dozen points per game. Since Toronto will lose James for nothing (Marquis Daniels was a bad contract anyways), who will score next season? Also, the Raptors must add defenders to the roster.

What’s Next: Toronto boasts half of a good team; Colangelo must find a back-up 4, a 3 who can shoot, and a 1 who can defend (a 2 with height would fit in nicely too). The Raptors are at one of those spots in a choose your own adventure book where one choice is the path to a happy ending and the other leads to total catastrophe.